[NL2-NL10] Did I play the flop right?

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Prima, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $4.62 (115.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $4.94 (123.5 bb) 19/16/5.4/9.0/32/269
      BTN: $7.50 (187.5 bb)
      SB: $4 (100 bb)
      BB: $11.84 (296 bb)
      UTG: $10.43 (260.8 bb) 50/20/1.5/7.5/29/83 Call PF 3bet 100%(2) Flop Donk Bet 24%(17)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
      UTG raises to $0.16, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.48, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.32

      Flop: ($1.02) 8 4 5 (2 players)
      UTG bets $1.02, Hero raises to $4.46, UTG folds

      I think I'm in a bad state if he has a set or QQ-JJ, I think he'd shove KK/AA Pre-flop.
  • 7 replies
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      That was the only thing to do on that flop, we want him to fold hands like JJ/AK/AQ and we still have equity for the best hand, if he calls.

      WP.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      I like your iso 3-bet preflop.

      Raising our draw here (and going with the hand 125 bb deep) is only good if we have a good amount of FE or if he stacks off with worse draws.

      I don't think we can know if we have FE, especially after such a big bet but most weaker draws, if he plays them like this would call.

      I would say raising and going with the hand here, with little info is a high variance play.

      Against 44-55 | 88-QQ | [76]h | [T9]h | [QT]h | [KT]h | [KQ]h | [A8]h we have 46% equity. Without any FE we need roughly 45% equity.

      So in the best case scenario, with no FE, we are break even. So if there is some FE then we will show a profit although you can see that this is a spot of high short term variance.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      I like your iso 3-bet preflop.

      Raising our draw here (and going with the hand 125 bb deep) is only good if we have a good amount of FE or if he stacks off with worse draws.

      I don't think we can know if we have FE, especially after such a big bet but most weaker draws, if he plays them like this would call.

      I would say raising and going with the hand here, with little info is a high variance play.

      Against 44-55 | 88-QQ | [76]h | [T9]h | [QT]h | [KT]h | [KQ]h | [A8]h we have 46% equity. Without any FE we need roughly 45% equity.

      So in the best case scenario, with no FE, we are break even. So if there is some FE then we will show a profit although you can see that this is a spot of high short term variance.
      Yeah its a crappy high variance spot, I took more than a min to think about it and then went in.

      What would you do here though?
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      i like to just call here IP because if we hit any pair, we are good imo and vs this sort of guy i'd probably call down. these villains love to bet but dont necessarily pay off if you raise. we can assume to have like 15 outs and so we will improve a lot of the time. by calling down, we let him represent the flush when it hits or the A or J. but by raising i think he folds most of his hands since this sort of guy has more bluffs than value. that said, the sample is <100 hands so i guess we can't rely too heavily on the stats.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      If we call flop there is roughly 1 pot size bet left on the turn which would then give us 33% pot odds.

      If we count all of ours as live (both A and J and flushdraw) we would have roughly 30% equity. So it would be enough for him to bluff once in a while for us to show some profit.

      But either way you will have a higher variance play (short term). Additionally if you call there is a chance he will give up on the turn and we can either stab at the pot or take the free card.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I did not consider calling because if I call then on the turn he's shoving or check/folding. If he's folding turn anyway I might as well make him fold flop. If he is shoving turn then I might as well move in on the flop with higher equity than on the turn with lower equity.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by maheepsangari
      I did not consider calling because if I call then on the turn he's shoving or check/folding. If he's folding turn anyway I might as well make him fold flop. If he is shoving turn then I might as well move in on the flop with higher equity than on the turn with lower equity.
      The one difference you may not be considering is that as soon as you shove you take away the chance for him to bluff. If we call we keep in all bluffs which he could then shove with on the turn.

      However my assumption initially, without reads, would be that he is rarely bluffing when betting the flop (and thus why I feel we have little FE).