[NL20-NL50] FR50 AJs nut flush river paired board

    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG+2: $50 (100 bb)
      MP1: $14.65 (29.3 bb)
      MP2: $60.95 (121.9 bb)
      MP3: $59.75 (119.5 bb)
      CO: $59.15 (118.3 bb)
      BTN: $22.95 (45.9 bb)
      SB: $49.50 (99 bb)
      Hero (BB): $108.05 (216.1 bb)
      UTG+1: $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A J
      4 folds, MP3 raises to $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, Hero calls $1

      Flop: ($4.50) K Q 3 (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks

      Turn: ($4.50) 2 (3 players)
      SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, MP3 calls $4.50

      River: ($18) 3 (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $8, MP3 raises to $53.75 and is all-in, SB folds, Hero ?

      Villain is decent, 15/12/5, AF=6.5, river afq 22, 230 hands

      On the flop I was going for check/raise/broke.

      Other guy in SB is agg 22/11/4.4, AF=11, so my guess is he can't be really strong on the turn, so I decide to call and not necessarily give up on the river if I don't hit. Much to my surprise the initial raiser calls too, so I put him on a FD too most of the time. That's why I bet small on the river, was actually hoping to get a little raise from the initial aggressor.

      The only, and I mean ONLY hand that makes sense and beats me is 22. And then again, wouldn't he raise 22 on the turn given the action?
  • 11 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello circoflax,

      What makes you think that he ain't able to Check behind QQ/KK from his range? River raise clearly ain't as a bluff cause it's 3bet so it's not that likely. Nor I don't expect him to raise made flushes this way as we also holding the J. So there ain't really that many hands what you have beat.

      What would you expect to have beat there which raises you? I'd really ask myself rather what hands do I have beat than what makes sense.

      Best Regards.
    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      I just don't get it why he wouldn't raise any of the sets on the turn, because that's the best hand there 99% of the time. The 1% is for the time when the guy in SB has 33 and he has 22.

      Ofc, his river bet is never a bluff unless he's high or something, and I can't beat anything. But it still doesn't add up. I can't find a hand I can beat, but I still can't find a hand that beats me. Vacuum.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      On the flop I was going for check/raise/broke.


      Is this plan justifiable? Is there any history/reads on the opposition that makes check/raise/broke a viable line?
      I mean, as much as our draw is strong, is it strong enough to go broke with once our check/raise gets raised?

      What makes you think that he ain't able to Check behind QQ/KK from his range?


      Theoretically he should but it is certainly no standard on such a dangerous board where he should be able to understand that there is value from betting + the hand is definitely vulnerable. I think that for those reasons we should be skeptical about him having a set on the flop.
      The only reason to expect to see KK-QQ there from time to time is his river push. Although I would expect it to be 22 most of the time. It also may make at least some sense not to raise 22 vs a potsize bet + a call.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      I just don't get it why he wouldn't raise any of the sets on the turn, because that's the best hand there 99% of the time. The 1% is for the time when the guy in SB has 33 and he has 22.

      You never know how long those guys can slowplay. Cause practically he may think he has KK, oh I don't get value from worse. You will see a lot of those players and even on your stakes and then be surprised that he is a regular on those limits. I have even had tons of those similar hands where PokerStrategiest plays this way and I was like :f_eek: .

      Ofc, his river bet is never a bluff unless he's high or something, and I can't beat anything. But it still doesn't add up. I can't find a hand I can beat, but I still can't find a hand that beats me. Vacuum.

      But I assume you are taking him as a good player, so what is he shoving the river?
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      On the flop I was going for check/raise/broke.
      Is this plan justifiable? Is there any history/reads on the opposition that makes check/raise/broke a viable line? I mean, as much as our draw is strong, is it strong enough to go broke with once our check/raise gets raised?
    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      On the flop I was going for check/raise/broke.
      Is this plan justifiable? Is there any history/reads on the opposition that makes check/raise/broke a viable line? I mean, as much as our draw is strong, is it strong enough to go broke with once our check/raise gets raised?
      Hmm, we've all been in this spot several times and I think this is mostly a commitment issue. The pot is already 3 way so a bit bigger pre, he bets at least 6BB into 9, I make it at least 20BB and I'd find it really hard to fold given my big draw. Maybe we can find a fold given the fact we are more than 100BB deep. I think it would depend a lot on his flop bet -> raise size -> stack.
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      Never ever folding vs a dude with 6.5 af, with a draw this big. Do you expect villian to raise all his made flushes on the river? Checking behind this board with a set makes no sense at all as you will always bet this board with your bluffs. But i think he got a middle type of hand tbh on this flop while checking back or a draw what can't stand a c/R. Usually the river context isn't the one people bluff at, so he might do some levling game I guess. Sick spot for sure.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Hmm, we've all been in this spot several times and I think this is mostly a commitment issue. The pot is already 3 way so a bit bigger pre, he bets at least 6BB into 9, I make it at least 20BB and I'd find it really hard to fold given my big draw. Maybe we can find a fold given the fact we are more than 100BB deep. I think it would depend a lot on his flop bet -> raise size -> stack.


      What else are you check/raising in this spot?
      I would just check/call with any FD and likely with FD+GS as well, especially with the nut FD and if SB overcalls as well.

      However, as much as I'm not sure whether check/calling is always better than check/raising here without history (and even with history), I really wouldn't be all that sure that you ever have the equity to go broke vs a range that not only doesn't fold to your strong 3way wet flop check/raise, but also doesn't flat and goes over the top instead. I think that if you do check/raise, it is a check/raise/fold.

      I would just die to hear a judge's opinion on this though.
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      QQ+,AKs,KJs+,KQo vs this range we got 43.21% EQ vs a range consisting QQ+,KQs,KQo we got 40,98% EQ. I opting for checkraising cause I think we got less imliedouts as we are are oop.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Unless I screwed my calculations up, we need 42% to go broke once we get 3Bet (assuming that he never folds once he 3Bets)

      Vs a reasonable range have a bit less:


      Board: K:spade: Q:spade: 3:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    38.93%  38.93%   0.00% { AsJs }
      MP3    61.07%  61.07%   0.00% { KK-QQ, 33, KQs, KQo }


      Well, we can maybe sometimes assume even that he most likely does not go broke with KQ unless he's very bad. So we have even less:


      Board: K:spade: Q:spade: 3:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    33.84%  33.84%   0.00% { AsJs }
      MP3    66.16%  66.16%   0.00% { KK-QQ, 33 }


      I mean, we just can't go broke if my calculations + assumptions are correct. We could though if because of some history/him being bad he would go over the top as a semibluff or if he went broke light.

      AND, I think that a decent amount of times he would just call with many hands vs our check/raise anyway – very often if not always with KQ, and less often but still possibly with sets. That overall would make his go-broke range even stronger.

      So my questions to the judges is:

      1) Are my above-written thoughts reasonable?
      2) What is the best line to take on the flop – ch/r, ch/c, or donkbet/go-broke? Why?
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      wow, discussion here is brilliant.


      Avartars91 :f_love:

      I think river is a pretty tough, yet relatively standard fold, although part of betting small is to induce, so I would just bet/fold like $14 for more value :)

      I think your assumptions are correct avartars, it is also less likely that he commits to the hand with say AK or another one pair hand as he will be more wary of kq/sets because its 3 way.

      I think c/call is good.

      I think if we c/r there are not many good bluffing cards either. If we have say AJss on 789ss then there are more run outs that we can get folds, but I think our future fold equity in a c/r pot vs the top of his range is minimal on this board.