140BB KK facing river shove

    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Villain is 24/20/10, I would imagine his 3bet range in this particular spot is 6-7% so I think he never has QQ and JJ is heavily discounted.

      Flop fold to cbet is 44%, Raise Flop is 16%. I think he is aggro but not the super spazzy type. My notes tell me that he attacks capped ranges but this isn't one of those spots and I think he is selective in his aggression.

      1) I think he has so few 33/JJ/KTs, not even sure if he could have 99. I am not cbetting the Flop that much (65-70% Flop cbet).

      2) At the same time there aren't too many busted draws, only ATs comes to mind and I don't think people bluff shove like that too often when I pot the River.


      Poker Stars $2.50/$5 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1999552
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $687.31
      SB: $521.49
      BB: $1144.23
      Hero (UTG): $967.62
      MP: $709.38
      CO: $767.57

      Pre Flop: ($7.50) Hero is UTG with K:spade: K:diamond:
      Hero raises to $12.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $12.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($32.50) J:club: 3:heart: Q:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

      Turn: ($72.50) 9:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $50, BTN calls $50

      River: ($172.50) 3:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $169.70, BTN raises to $604.81 all in, Hero ?
  • 10 replies
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      I am not cbetting the Flop that much (65-70% Flop cbet).

      LOL u made my day :)

      About the hand :

      What's ur value range here ? If u have all sets and 2p on the river, it's easy fold with KK (I assume this one because of 70% cbet).
      But if u c/r a lot of flops and turns with nuts, u probably should call. Especially when u have that note about capped range.

      Also I don't like potting that river. He could easily fold KQ to this sizing. He definitely has some 2p, str8 and set combos, so basically we're turning our hand into a bluff since he calls AQ+.
    • Agiz19
      Agiz19
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2007 Posts: 1,097
      very unlikley he has a 3, only reasonable hands he might have are QT, QJ, QK, AQ, KT and maybe a full house w JJ or 99, but most of time i think JJ, 99 are 3betting flop in 6max games and that limits. KT still i think he bets flop, i would give him KQ here.

      If you would tell if you called and what did he have i so wanna know :f_grin:
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      @getdotacom: why I think it's a reasonable average cbet stat, nothing too out of line. I'm referring to overall and not specifically to that flop. I suppose you play more of a balanced checking style with 50% cbet?

      I see myself check/folding some pocket pairs and some pure air so I assumed he shouldn't be calling flop too wide.

      I think I probably slowplay QQ often on Flop, and sometimes I c/r KTs on Turn but probably betting everything else. I would have folded AA here but called cos of blockers.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I'm not sure about your comments about potting river. I block KQ and given I raised UTG i think he folds KQo most of the time, leaving him with 2 combos of KQs. Feel like I'm quite far ahead and I think I would bluff enough % of the time for him to be forced to call AQ.

      Worse
      AQ (12 combos)
      QJs (2 combos)
      Total: 14 combos

      Better
      KTs (2)
      JJ (1.5)
      99 (1)
      Ac3c (1)
      Total: 5.5 combos
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      Ohh, sorry, I missread board a little bit. I thought it didn't pair.
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      You list his BT 3bet %, but what about his CC%?

      I think your turn size could a bit bigger. most of his hands continue to a 50/72 bet there, so you should charge more. I wouldn't go too big, like overbetting, because you have a fair number of thin value hands yourself (you are not super polarized), but maybe a pot sized bet seems better.

      River I think a check raise is an option, but maybe it's a bit too thin.

      When you bet river I think a normal to large size is good.

      When he jams we are bluffcatching.
      His most likely value hands are JJ,A3cc,KT,T8. He might not jam A3,T8 as it's a bit thin. He might 3b JJ pre or raise flop with it. He might raise KT on the turn. So I don't think he has too many value hands.
      His most likely bluff hands are anything that called twice. no pair AK,AT, weak pair T9,AJ,KJ,JT. Maybe even QT where he feels like he can't call. While I don't think it's standard for any of those hands to jam river, there is certainly a long list of them, and they all have some sort of blocker which might convince him they are good bluff jams.

      So if I had to make a read I would think he is bluffing here more often then he should be, and all bluffcatchers, including KK, are a call.
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      yeah, there are lots of hands in villain's turn call range that are candidates to bluff the river, but if villain is somewhat solid, isn't it very unlikely that he's going to bluffraise when a) hero range is un-capped and b) it's very likely that hero will expect villain to raise all value hands except A3s on the turn most of the time? or is this a spot where nl500 players often slowplay IP on the turn to mix things up?

      also, what about our perceived range? if we successfully polarized it with the big riverbet, then won't he just flat-call JT etc to bluffcatch vs AK etc? or do we think villain puts enough KK/AA , maybe even AQ, or JT etc. turned into a bluff in our range? i dunno what hero's image/history is like

      also, won't villain suspect that we realise that a) the board is fairly good for villain and b) we look like there's a lot of AK+some other draws in our turn range, and thus lots of air that might want to bluff river?

      or is all of that just dumb levelling that will eventually become obsolete?
    • thesundancekid
      thesundancekid
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.05.2011 Posts: 151
      I totally agree with internet to keep this post small,

      if it was me I would have called river as I am leaning towards a bluff.


      so tell me what did he have ??????
    • thesundancekid
      thesundancekid
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.05.2011 Posts: 151
      in saying that , if villain did flop set he played it good, if i had flopped set id flat each bet till river,

      maybe he has set of 3's?

      i think he would have 3bet jj & qq pre and i dont know his C/C % .
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      he had 99, rly didnt expect it plus he reps rly narrow and i wasn't too sure how wide his bluffing range was