[NL2-NL10] Tt

    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,711
      I am doomed this hand, right?

      POS: (VPIP/PFR/3-BET) [Reads]
      UTG: (96/6/4) [Fishy, even by my standards. Routinely floats oop with air.]
      SB: (44/18/4) [Decent LAG/TAG]
      SB: (47/27/5) [Decent LAG/TAG]

      Microgaming - £0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: £2.96
      CO: £3.27
      Hero (BTN): £4.23
      SB: £4.71

      SB posts SB £0.02, BB posts BB £0.04

      Pre Flop: (pot: £0.06) Hero has T:heart: T:diamond:

      CO calls £0.04, Hero raises to £0.16, SB calls £0.14, BB calls £0.12, CO calls £0.12

      Flop: (£0.64, 4 players) J:spade: T:club: 4:spade:
      SB checks, BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets £0.42, SB calls £0.42, BB calls £0.42, CO calls £0.42

      Turn: (£2.32, 4 players) K:spade:
      SB checks, BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets £3.65 and is all-in, SB calls £3.65, fold, fold

      River: (£9.62, 2 players) 8:club:

      Hero shows T:heart: T:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Tens) (Pre 68%, Flop 73%, Turn 23%)
      SB shows A:spade: 8:spade: (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 32%, Flop 27%, Turn 77%)
      SB wins £9.19


      Being result oriented, I immediately said to myself that I might have saved something from the wreckage. But this must be BS. My thoughts in spoiler.

      Question: At some stack size, I should be able to save something from the wreckage. If this is correct, which stack size? The one i had???

      I think the correct play is to
      1.) Realize that I'm screwed. There are plenty of AQ/Q9/x :spade: y :spade: that actually make sense for anyone of them to have. The best I can hope for is two pair playing this way.
      2.) Shove.
      3.) Hope all call. UTG is a fish and will call with any spade. Anyone else with A :spade: will probably call, at least with one previous caller. (They should know too that UTG is quite likely to call.)
      4.) Get down on my knees and hope for the board to pair - or at least no :spade: .

      With, say, £10 behind, I'd probably check behind on turn.
  • 6 replies
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,350
      Think of what are they calling you with on the flop. I'd put them on a straight draw/FD, not that likely on Jx-hand. So by overbetting the turn you drive away every hand that missed and donate your stack for them, who made their draw ready on turn.

      So, our plan should be check-back turn and reevaluate the river. We might even improve to FH.
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,711
      Yes, you have me convinced. I'm not infinitely stubborn, just close to. I still present my counter arguments below, perhaps for my own future reference :D
      /**/
      Yes, that is definitely one play. But how cute would it be to see the other fish (besides me) in the pot (UTG) win with a rivered baby flush, or even a missed flush on the river, for which he would have paid?

      I agree that a FD and a SD makes the most sense for them to have on the turn. The only hand that makes real sense to then check (for them) on the turn (if they made their hand) is the nut flush, at least if they think I'm not capable checking behind.

      I still see two problems with checking behind;

      1.) I don't think I'm capable of folding on the river, except when a spade falls, versus these guys. I'd hate to be bluffed out by the fish.

      2.) These guys are not the best in the world. The fish would absolutely call with a any reasonable spade (two pair, maybe even a pair + small spade).
      /**/

      But yeah, you are right. I should have checked. With less than pot left, I would still shove (the above reasoning being stronger now). As it was I had 1.5*pot. I should have checked turn and called a small bet on the river, especially from the fish.

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      I would cbet larger on the flop versus so many people for pure value.

      Considering we had all the guys call us there is a high chance that some or one has the FD so I would check back. On top of that the K came down which scares hands like Jx/QQ especially once you overbet.
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,711
      Thanks judge.

      I would cbet larger on the flop versus so many people for pure value.

      I don't think this is perfect either. I want the hands that I have beat to stay in. The (edit:RIO->IO) for a nut flush draw goes down if I overbet the flop, true, but only slightly, since I'd once again be committed to the pot if two or more call. Heck, even one caller becomes tricky depending on who it is.

      The straight draws + non-nut FD's (which may figure that 1.5-2*pot is too steep for only 6 nut outs or no nut outs) may bail out, I don't want that either. I can't target Ax of spades only with my cbet. There is no guarantee that somebody has it. It is even very very unlikely - 9 combos max. There are a lot more SD and two pair combos to consider.

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      You are playing against 3 big fish.

      Do you really think they would fold their draws or hands they like for a bigger bet?

      On this board there are enough draws, pairs (2p) that can call larger bets especially since we have 3 people, that each have 2 cards, that could have hit this board.

      I recommend you open up Equilab and see how many combos of the above actually exist, and then split between 3 guys.
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,711
      I don't know, but I would certainly fold some of the crappier draws myself (,which is an easy thing to say now away from the table, at least I hope I'd fold most crappy draws) to a megabet. I'd read my opponent for most likely having an overpair or a set. I wouldn't expect to see a cheap river if I miss the turn either. It depends on the number of previous callers and my position. I'd certainly expect to stack my opponent if I hit a good draw on the turn. With two pair? Not sure, but the prospect of being behind and/or up against the Ace of Spades somewhere doesn't look very attractive.

      I think that this is a genuinely difficult hand.

      I didn't see any mistakes on part of the SB and the BB before this hand. You might say that they play badly before the flop. Yeah, 47/27/5 is a little bit over the hill, but there is no such thing as a correct pre-flop strategy in NL hold'em that rules them all. At these tables it's definitely not optimal to adhere to a tight strategy pre-flop if you play well post-flop. At least not with decent stacks. [Note that I didn't say I play well myself post-flop =) ] The CO was a documented fish though.

      The next time I'll either be more careful on turn and beyond, or bet more on the flop. Doing both though feels a bit of a stretch given my stack size.



      /Johan = :f_confused: