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[NL20-NL50] NL25: ATs FD vs fishy shortstack

    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Party Poker $25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1999791
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $25.00
      Hero (UTG): $29.53
      CO: $25.00
      BTN: $7.32
      SB: $33.92

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A :heart: T :heart:
      Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 2 :diamond: 7 :heart: 9 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.88, BTN calls $0.88

      Turn: ($3.61) 6 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.71, BTN raises to $5.69 all in, Hero folds

      Villain: openlimping fishy shortstack

      I think that with my equity and outs I could/should be bet/calling the turn vs his stack:

      Equity needed: ~26%

      An approximate range that he may have (depends on the guy, but this should be reasonable)

      Board: 2:diamond: 7:heart: 9:heart:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    33.10%  32.71%   0.38% { AhTh }
      MP3    66.90%  66.52%   0.38% { JJ-66, 22, A9s, A7s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, A9o }

      Even if he doesn't push FDs we still have a call:

      Board: 2:diamond: 7:heart: 9:heart:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    30.75%  30.35%   0.40% { AhTh }
      MP3    69.25%  68.85%   0.40% { JJ-66, 22, A9s, A7s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A9o }

      In fact, if I'm betting, then I should be bet/calling this turn with most FDs that are in my range, I suppose.

      Which makes me question: are we happy about choosing this a line (bet flop, bet/call turn) on this board texture vs a possibly loose opponent? Are there not better plays available?
  • 1 reply