This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL20-NL50] NL25: ATs FD vs fishy shortstack

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Party Poker $25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1999791
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $25.00
      Hero (UTG): $29.53
      CO: $25.00
      BTN: $7.32
      SB: $33.92

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A :heart: T :heart:
      Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 2 :diamond: 7 :heart: 9 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.88, BTN calls $0.88

      Turn: ($3.61) 6 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.71, BTN raises to $5.69 all in, Hero folds

      Villain: openlimping fishy shortstack

      I think that with my equity and outs I could/should be bet/calling the turn vs his stack:

      Equity needed: ~26%

      An approximate range that he may have (depends on the guy, but this should be reasonable)


      Board: 2:diamond: 7:heart: 9:heart:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    33.10%  32.71%   0.38% { AhTh }
      MP3    66.90%  66.52%   0.38% { JJ-66, 22, A9s, A7s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, A9o }


      Even if he doesn't push FDs we still have a call:


      Board: 2:diamond: 7:heart: 9:heart:  6:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    30.75%  30.35%   0.40% { AhTh }
      MP3    69.25%  68.85%   0.40% { JJ-66, 22, A9s, A7s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, A9o }


      In fact, if I'm betting, then I should be bet/calling this turn with most FDs that are in my range, I suppose.

      Which makes me question: are we happy about choosing this a line (bet flop, bet/call turn) on this board texture vs a possibly loose opponent? Are there not better plays available?
  • 1 reply