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[NL20-NL50] NL25: AJo TP vs river minraise

    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1999800
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $25.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 2,8, Hands: 651
      SB: $43.38 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 2,7, Hands: 171
      Hero (BB): $25.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 5, AF: 4,8, Hands: 90087
      UTG: $25.33 - VPIP: 39, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 3,0, Hands: 56
      MP: $25.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 22, 3B: 6, AF: 2,6, Hands: 147
      CO: $18.75 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 4,4, cBetFlop: 100(10), cBet3BFlop: 100(3), Hands: 267

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A :spade: J :club:
      UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $1.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 1 fold

      Flop: ($2.85) J :spade: 9 :heart: 4 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $1.90, Hero calls $1.90

      Turn: ($6.65) 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      River: ($6.65) 5 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.25, CO raises to $7, Hero calls $3.75

      CO: non-fullstacked reg that so far seems to be cBetting on the flop a lot
      UTG: openlimping fish

      Preflop: I'm not sure I like calling such a large raise OOP, knowing that the fishy guy may probably even often/sometimes fold, leaving me in a HU pot vs a reg OOP with a hand that does not play well. I think I should have 3Bet and taken the initiative + fold equity.

      River: villain does not rep much because of his check behind on the turn. I mean – 55? A2s? 67s? I think he would first of all use a much bigger sizing with these hands. And it may also be questioned if he would isoraise to 5BBs with these hands preflop (not impossible and it would even not be unlikely, but probability-wise we have to assume that an unknown may sometimes/often choose to isolate to 4BBs as well). He also is not fullstacked and that may be a sign of fishiness. For those reasons I called.
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Preflop: His PFR is also rather lower therefore might be more reasonable to do that. We are OOP and will be difficult to play.

      As played
      Postflop: But what makes you more inclined to think that he wants to bluff you on the river and not bet the turn? :P Any reasons to assume he is capable of bluffing the river?

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      As played Postflop: But what makes you more inclined to think that he wants to bluff you on the river and not bet the turn? Any reasons to assume he is capable of bluffing the river?

      True, I don't have any reason to assume that. But are hard-to-believe kind of bluffs that don't seem to make sense at all not something we usually call? Because there really doesn't seem a lot of hands possible that he may have that beat ours.
      Then again it's difficult to believe he expects a lot of fold equity vs made hands with such sizing :/
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      I would seriously advocate folding preflop here since we are OOP facing a tight opener. Maaaybe we can 3bet profitably but given his tight range preflop I expect him to defend reasonably often and for me AJo seems very marginal OOP, towards bad actually. I would take ATs over AJo, probably even a hand like QJs because the value of a pair is more or less the same (we are dominated quite often in both cases) but the added value of a FD and extra nut straights makes it easier to put pressure if we perceive our opponent to have a weak range.

      Which actually brings us to our problem: Does he have a weak range? He might expand his PFR to isolate but how much does he do it? Furthermore, our 3bet usually gets the fish out of the pot and sticks us OOP against the PFR. Usually you want the fish in and the reg out, preferably having position as well. It's not the case here. I think calling your good hands that can outplay the reg a bit and get value from the fish such as pairs and suited high cards are a good flat and 3betting a not-so-wide range mostly for value will be fine. PFR has a tight range so he's unlikely to fold thus when you have a value hand you 'cooler' him often and when you don't.. well, how likely is he to fold.

      Having his Foldvs3bet stat helps obviously, so does 4betting range, postflop tendencies, etc.

      As played, I would bet bigger or check river as well. His range is a mediocre showdown value hand (JT, TT, 9x) or air imo. When I bet against that showdown value part of his range I think he is almost never folding so I will bet bigger. If he has air though, I don't get value unless he raises worse. A good player will actually fold or raise 100% against your river bet because you rep no bluffs with this line.

      The river action is quite weird.. he represents maybe 67, maybe 55 but can't think of other value hands that make sense. I would probably sigh call and make notes on his play in this hand to use in the future.
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey Avatars what was the outcome?

      I think people are never bluffing here, especially not regfishes like he looks like. And why would he bluff so small? It looks so obvious he wants some value
    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      He ended up showing an AQ bluff. But difficult to say what we can expect in such spots longterm :)