[NL2-NL10] Middle-pair, what is the plan?

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2002427
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $13.06 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 27, 3B: 0, AF: 4,7, Hands: 211, co open: 50% 13/26, flop cbet: 12/15, WTS:25
      Hero (BTN): $10.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,0, Hands: 53719
      SB: $11.25 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 10, AF: 2,5, Hands: 45
      BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 18, 3B: 10, AF: 0,8, Hands: 56
      UTG: $4.00 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 25, 3B: 6, AF: 0,0, Hands: 57
      MP: $7.21 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 28, 3B: 13, AF: 4,0, Hands: 57

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 7 :club: 7 :heart:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.95) 5 :club: 4 :heart: 9 :club: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.50, Hero ?

      I see myself ahead. I don't want to see overcards, that would incline me to raise, but does it make sense? Bluff: NO. Value: Overcards, flushdraws smaller pairs could call, so YES. Dead money? Well, He could have overcards which would fold, so possible. All in all, a raise seems nice.
  • 7 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      A raise only seems nice if we think we have high FE. What do you see him bet/folding here?

      Our hand has almost 0 hand equity going past flop so we need a lot of FE to make this profitable.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      A raise only seems nice if we think we have high FE. What do you see him bet/folding here?

      Our hand has almost 0 hand equity going past flop so we need a lot of FE to make this profitable.
      He looks aggro, so he can cbet with almost any2. But the doesnt cbet 100%, so I guess he has to have something. His WTS isnt too high tough.
      Well, folding is weak, calling is bad, the raise is the only choice that remains I think.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      A raise only seems nice if we think we have high FE. What do you see him bet/folding here?

      Our hand has almost 0 hand equity going past flop so we need a lot of FE to make this profitable.
      He looks aggro, so he can cbet with almost any2. But the doesnt cbet 100%, so I guess he has to have something. His WTS isnt too high tough.
      Well, folding is weak, calling is bad, the raise is the only choice that remains I think.
      Well folding may seem weak. However when calling is a bad option and raising, a fish, is also not a great option we just have to choose the least bad option.

      Do you really want to raise 77 on this board, as a bluff, versus a big fish (potentially aggro)?

      Our skill advantage and value, against these players, comes from value betting not bluffing with little equity.
    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      So, the best line would be to call the flop, and bet checked turn and take the pot away? If villain 2barrels, it`s fold ofc.

      :f_p:
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by dienaszaglis
      So, the best line would be to call the flop, and bet checked turn and take the pot away? If villain 2barrels, it`s fold ofc.

      :f_p:
      Sorry I didn't make this clear enough in the previous post.

      What I meant to say is that I don't like either calling or raising so I would fold :)

      It's the "least bad" option in my eyes.
    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      Would you consider floating on the K62r as he c-bets a lot?

      Would you advise to raise his CB on K62r as a bluff, if his 2-barrel stat would be high (~70%)? Or just to call him down?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by dienaszaglis
      Would you consider floating on the K62r as he c-bets a lot?

      Would you advise to raise his CB on K62r as a bluff, if his 2-barrel stat would be high (~70%)? Or just to call him dow n?
      Calling would be a better option in a spot like that and if he barrels multiple streets with a wide range we will be ahead of a lot of his range.

      As an exercise take a sample opponent, plug in his preflop range, then narrow down the range by streets and see how we do versus it and what his range distribution is.