[NL2-NL10] bu A9, PF game + overall AS PLAYED

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2002436
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $13.08 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 18, 3B: 3, AF: 1,5, Hands: 91
      BB: $10.55 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 9, 3B: 6, AF: 0,0, Hands: 78
      CO: $4.57 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 27, 3B: 0, AF: 4,7, Hands: 211 co open: 50%, CB: 80%, 2ndbarrel 4/7, Fto3bet: 7/12, WTS:25
      Hero (BTN): $16.17 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,0, Hands: 53719

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A :heart: 9 :club:
      CO raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30
      I'm ahead of villain's range, so I have to call at least. Dont wanna 3bet this hand, it's almost too strong for that. I mean, no stronger folding, no weaker calling

      Flop: ($1.25) J :heart: K :heart: T :club: (3 players)
      BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($1.25) 2 :spade: (3 players)
      BB bets $0.60, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.20
      On this draw-heavy board, he would definietly bet bigger with a strong hand. I can make weak Kx, Tx, Jx hands fold imo, so must raise-bluff.

      eldobta
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Against a 27% range preflop (although UO raise is probably different than 27%) we have 50% equity so we are not really ahead although we have position.

      He doesn't seem to be a calling station (normal WTSD) but do we really expect villain to fold a weak Kx here? How about Jx or Tx with draws?

      I feel that raising with very little equity here against a fish is not going to be that profitable.

      We need to win this pot more than 55% of the time to be profitable.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Against a 27% range preflop (although UO raise is probably different than 27%) we have 50% equity so we are not really ahead although we have position.

      He doesn't seem to be a calling station (normal WTSD) but do we really expect villain to fold a weak Kx here? How about Jx or Tx with draws?

      I feel that raising with very little equity here against a fish is not going to be that profitable.

      We need to win this pot more than 55% of the time to be profitable.
      His CO open raise is 50%, so I'm way ahead. Maybe I could 3bet this, but I'd prefer to play postflop with his wide range.

      I cant imagine BB betting so small on such a draw-heavy board with a strong holding. He looks decent player, so he can lay down many hands here. I mean, would he donk with a draw? oF course not. He has a weak made hand, which he's going to lay down. Slowplaying on this board with a strong hand is suicidal, and I bet he knows that too.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Against a 27% range preflop (although UO raise is probably different than 27%) we have 50% equity so we are not really ahead although we have position.

      He doesn't seem to be a calling station (normal WTSD) but do we really expect villain to fold a weak Kx here? How about Jx or Tx with draws?

      I feel that raising with very little equity here against a fish is not going to be that profitable.

      We need to win this pot more than 55% of the time to be profitable.
      His CO open raise is 50%, so I'm way ahead. Maybe I could 3bet this, but I'd prefer to play postflop with his wide range.

      I cant imagine BB betting so small on such a draw-heavy board with a strong holding. He looks decent player, so he can lay down many hands here. I mean, would he donk with a draw? oF course not. He has a weak made hand, which he's going to lay down. Slowplaying on this board with a strong hand is suicidal, and I bet he knows that too.
      BB also has 0.0 AF over 78 hands which makes him extremely passive or unlucky (to not have hit anything before this that he could bet). That 0.0 may be a mistake though.

      Either way your thought process is on track however don't you expect villain to donk pair+draw that's not very strong and not fold that ? Like JQ, QT, T9, even weak Kx?

      If you think he can fold that then we should have enough FE to raise.