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[NL2-NL10] Overpair x Cbet raiser

    • boozaf
      Joined: 02.12.2009 Posts: 140
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 6 players

      BB: $7.65
      UTG: $8.11
      Hero (MP): $4.99
      CO: $7.97 VP 39 / PR 28 (58 hands sample)
      BTN: $5.46
      SB: $4.74

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q:spade: Q:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: ($0.47, 2 players) 5:heart: 8:heart: J:club:
      Hero bets $0.34, CO raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.56

      Turn: ($2.27, 2 players) 6:diamond:
      Hero checks, CO bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

      River: ($4.27, 2 players) K:club:
      Hero checks, CO bets $1.70, Hero calls $1.70

      CO shows K:heart: J:heart: (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks) (Pre 32%, Flop 49%, Turn 30%)
      Hero mucks Q:spade: Q:heart: (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 68%, Flop 51%, Turn 70%)
      CO wins $7.35

      Should I shove or 4bet in a spot like this? I figured he could be raising many hands here so a fold seemed pretty weak.
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Very dependent on villain. Vs weaker players who have a merged value range here including AJ/KJ, you should be 3betting Flop for value. Allowing one of those hands to get away is a huge mistake, since there are so many combinations of those hands.

      AJ (12 combos) - 4 As X 3 Js
      KJ (12 combos) - 4 Ks X 3 Js
      You also have a bunch of flush draws and straight draws which may/may not raise. Lots of value to be had on the Flop.

      That's way more than the amount of sets he could have
      55 (3 combos)
      88 (3 combos)
      JJ (1-3 combos cos he may 3bet preflop)

      Anyway from what I see from the results I think 3betting Flop is clearly the better play.

      On the other hand you have a different class of players. Tight Solid guys, usually at NL25-NL100. Especially Full ring regs who dont raise Flop for thin value cos it would just be overplaying.

      Vs those guys 3betting Flop is just spew cos those guys are raising a more polarized range on the Flop, of sets, combodraws and some gutshots. 3betting only serves to isolate yourself against the strong parts of his range.
      So vs these guys I call the Flop raise and check/shove Turn (this would be a protection play)
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      On the flop I would cbet larger to begin with for value as it's a very connected board.

      Once we get raised, without knowing the results ahead of time we should make an assumption about his range. If we think he raises Jx/draws then we should go with the hand. The sample on him shows him as being a semifish (possibly) since he played 39/28 so far and thus I can see him raising a Jx or some draws.

      As played I would raise the turn for value/protection.

      As played on the river I would also most likely call because we still beat most Jx (esp AJ) that would bet and missed draws.