[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 AJs

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      CO: $73.21 (146.4 bb)
      BTN: $47.87 (95.7 bb)
      Hero (SB): $67.19 (134.4 bb)
      BB: $49.25 (98.5 bb)
      MP: $99.47 (198.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J A
      MP raises to $2, CO calls $2, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds

      Flop: ($6.50) 8 A K (3 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $4.50, CO folds, Hero calls $4.50

      Turn: ($15.50) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

      River: ($36.50) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $22, Hero folds


      Anon table.

      CO is a fish.

      MP played 28/20 after 135 hands, AFq 37.

      Preflop? I would have squeezed with AJo, but I thought with suited AJ calling is reasonable even oop, with the fish being in the pot.

      I thought a lot about this hand, and what I figured out :) is that maybe folding flop would be the best option... MP will bluff very rarely in this spot with the fish in the pot 3way, and the fish already folded. My only hope is like AT/Axs sometimes.
      On the turn I have to call obviously. On the river I beat his bluffs, which I dont think he could have many (if at all). On the other side AK/KK/88/A8s is quite a narrow range...
  • 8 replies
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Hey pcfmcc02 ,

      Vs a 4x UTG raise, I don't want to squeeze AJ, its very possible he has AK/AQ and decides to flat call and then we go post flop vs a very dominated range, our hand has decent playability and there is a fish so just call and flop good.

      I think I would call the river.

      He flat called pre flop so we can probably discount AA/KK/AK from his range. A8 is not really a hand people play from UTG so that full house is out, similar for A6.

      He can have 88 for value and then he can also have AJ/A10 for value and also maybe a2-a5s that he called pre flop. I really think we are beating by a pretty small amount of combos and that we can find enough hands that we beat or chop with to make it a call, especially with the price.

      Also it realllly looks like you have Ax if he had 88 I think he would bet bigger than 22 > 36.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Originally posted by pleno1
      He flat called pre flop so we can probably discount AA/KK/AK from his range.
      He didnt call, he was the utg openraiser preflop, so I think he could easily have AK/KK as well...
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Ok cool,

      Can still use the analysis if a caller behind took the line.

      It makes it a lot closer, I don't think he has AK as often though as the sizing is smaller and people still open enough suited Ax to make this an ok call.

      You can then take a note about his bet sizings on the river with the certain hand strength and exploit going forward.
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      And it's even less likely as we hold an ace in our hand, so that if he haves AQ or AK is pretty darn unlikely and hands like A2s A3s A4s A5s etc.

      I think a fold is very tight on the river as we only needs to win we only need like 35% EQ to call profitble right? Might do the potodds thing wrong tho ^^.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      tough spot vs this ambiguous sizing. I think it's a fold vs a huge bet, and an call vs a 50% pot bet cos AT could be more likely in his range and also we chop a lot more rather than lose to AQ or better.

      You might need to evaluate his skill level though, and 3barreling A2s seems really dumb (Does he really have 3 streets of value? Why would he value bet weak kickers on the Turn?).

      I also think river is terrible spot for bluff, and I think he doesn't go for thin value on Turn a lot of the time.

      I think I agree with the fold.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Originally posted by mbml
      tough spot vs this ambiguous sizing. I think it's a fold vs a huge bet, and an call vs a 50% pot bet cos AT could be more likely in his range and also we chop a lot more rather than lose to AQ or better.

      You might need to evaluate his skill level though, and 3barreling A2s seems really dumb (Does he really have 3 streets of value? Why would he value bet weak kickers on the Turn?).

      I also think river is terrible spot for bluff, and I think he doesn't go for thin value on Turn a lot of the time.

      I think I agree with the fold.
      This, I don't usually expect regs to bet weak aces on the turn, especially without significant draws on the flop
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      R is indeed a fold for me.

      Is flop such an easy call though? We don't know if he'd bet. AT this big and I don't think so either. We can also expect a Tbet which we can rarely call.
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      The flop sizing isn't really that big, if he bet pot then sure, but this sizing is relatively standard and if he raised with a pocket pair or a worse ace I'd imagine him to cbet. Folding the flop seems incredibly nitty.

      We cannot be scared to play street poker.