[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH 66 set vs c/r on the turn

    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      €0.12/€0.25 No Limit Holdem
      PartyPoker
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG Player2 (€12.44) 50bb
      UTG+1 kymupa (€24.63) 99bb
      CO Player4 (€25.37) 101bb
      BTN Player5 (€24.51) 98bb
      SB Player6 (€82.68) 331bb
      BB Player1 (€27.27) 109bb

      Pre-Flop: (€0.37, 6 players) kymupa is UTG+1 6:spade: 6:club:
      1 fold, kymupa raises to €0.75, 3 folds, Player1 calls €0.50

      Flop: 6:heart: 2:spade: 7:diamond: (€1.62, 2 players)
      Player1 checks, kymupa bets €1, Player1 calls €1

      Turn: A:diamond: (€3.62, 2 players)
      Player1 checks, kymupa bets €2.50, Player1 raises to €6.50, kymupa goes all-in €22.88, Player1 folds

      Final Pot: €16.62

      kymupa wins €48.56 (net +€23.93)

      Player1 lost €8.25

      Hello.

      So this hand looks like a well played hand but I just want to talk about it.

      Villian is 22/15 fold to cb flop 60% turn 0 (1) over 250hands.

      So preflop and flop I think it is OK.

      What about the turn though?
      My thoughts were that he would raise three types of hands here:
      - strong made hands - hands like sets/two pair and I don't really expect him to fold them if I shove
      - bluffs - those hands might have almost no equity vs me so I am not really scared of calling and seeing the river.
      - strong or weak draws - e.g. 89 or FD that he picked up on the turn that he decided that he could not c/c them.

      So what are the pros and cons of calling and raising here?
      If I just call I am not really sure that he will fire again on the river with his bluffs and busted draws, and I will just pay him off when he hits his draw. Also on the river might come a card like 7 that would kill his A2 and I don't get value.
      If I shove here, I make all his bluffs to fold, I don't really think he is raise folding a hand like A2 here, and I do maximize my value against draws.

      Any thoughts?
  • 2 replies
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Calling turn looks like a decent option, cause as pfa you can credibly represent Ax hands, which he could try to make fold on the river.
      Against his valuehands you probably go broke anyway.
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Hey,

      I think turn is a mistake.

      Remember we are in position.

      Lets go through some scenarios..

      He has Ax and c/r the turn and bets river, we call and win
      He has a set that beats us and bets river, we call and lose
      He ahs a set that we beat, and bets river, we call and win
      He has a bluff that bets river, we call and win.

      In this case we only lose when he has a better hand that won't fold the turn anyway.

      Now lets look at when we go all in on the turn

      We go all in, he has Ax and maybe folds, maybe calls sometimes we win
      Hw has a set that beats us, calls and we lose
      He has a set that we beat, he calls and we win
      He has a bluff and folds

      Quite clearly calling is the best option imo.