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[NL2-NL10] NL4 SH, TP on wet board vs fish

    • dienaszaglis
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($11.03) 276bb
      UTG+1 ($2.26) 57bb
      HERO (CO) ($4.01) 100bb
      BTN ($4.33) 108bb
      SB ($5.15) 129bb
      BB ($4) 100bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.06, 6 players) HERO is CO 8:heart: A:heart:
      1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.04, HERO raises to $0.18, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.14

      Flop: K:spade: 10:club: A:club: ($0.42, 2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $0.32, HERO calls $0.32

      Turn: 8:diamond: ($1.06, 2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $0.44, HERO raises to $2.04, UTG+1 goes all-in $1.32

      River: 3:heart: ($4.58, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Villain is 52/1, AF:1.8, 74h
      AF on flop: 0.3 (37)

      Stats-wise, is this a fold on the flop? When I played this hand, I only payed attention on the total AF.
      Even though villain is rather short, I don`t think, that I can go broke on the flop, because a lot of hands beat me - AQ, AJ, AT, A9, KT, TT
      I thought that he could be also donking with some FD`s, there are a few worse Ax as well and folding seemed too weak.

      However, it`s almost certain, that he will be leading on the turn as well. He probably would not be doing so with much worse, so I think folding the flop is reasonable.

      As played, there is no getting away on the turn.
  • 2 replies
    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Way too much thinking for a hand like this at these stakes. You need evidence to believe that he would be donking with a flush draw or weak aces etc. Did you see him do that before?

      Sample size is too small for taking AF into account.

      Finally, board is way too freaking heavy. Very easy to give up on the flop, definite fold.

      Preflop when you 3bet him your plan should be to continue with FDs or two pair type of hands on the flop. You TP hand will be dominated way too many times as he could limp call with better Ax hands, especially since his PFR seems so low. You can also C-bet dry flops and take it down, however this guy doesn't seem the kind who would want to fold so you could just call pre-flop and have others behind you call as well cause your flush draw would play great multiway.

      On the flop you have to give it up. He van have better Ax hands, he can have 2 pair combos, heck he can even have a made straight. Even if he is donking with a flush draw your hand isn't good enough to protect. You actually didn't even protect your hand on the flop and actually called like a station. If you were completely sure he had a FD then you should raise (but please don't cause he can have a lot more here) to protect. When someone calls like that on that flop he wants good equity but you don't even have that.

      On the turn your hand is still not good to move in. There are still better 2 pairs possible, not to forget straights or sets.

      So in a nutshell I would fold flop.
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Af 1.8 (although over a small sample) is not that big.

      Considering the amount of hands that can valuebet donk there I would consider folding the flop and moving on to the next hand. There are way too many combinations of better hands or hands with a lot of equity.