[NL2-NL10] Nl10 Aa

    • TheWinnerTakesItAll
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 1,187
      Opponent stats 32/14 AF:0,8 WTSD:22 W$SD:50 after 28 hands.

      What do you think?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A.
      3 folds, MP3 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, MP3 calls $0.70.

      Flop: ($2.05) 3, T, K (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.45, MP3 calls $1.45.

      Turn: ($4.95) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.35, MP3 calls $2.35.

      River: ($9.65) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 raises to $4.61, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $9.65.
  • 3 replies
    • CPallo
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      I'd play C/F on that river, too. He is too passive to have any bluffs on his range. I'd still bet 2 str as you did coz he could have strong draws there that call you off more than once.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I could go either way on Turn, though vs this passive guy i think there's more value in betting yourself rather than c/c (since I think he checks back AQ and other gutshots or flush draws).

      River is interesting. We know he probably bluffs his flush draws but he no longer has busted straight draws. Would he bet JX here? If yes I think this is a call. If he only bets AQ/KX and busted flush draws then I think you may not beat enough hands.

      You should look at street by street AF. There are many bad passive players who have very low F+T AF and a disproportionately high R AF (cos they like to get to river and bluff a lot when they lack showdown value).

      I think 0.8 AF is really low though. Feels like a c/f to me. I think you should also be thinking about his preflop range in greater detail, like how wide is he opening from this particular position, and how often he folds to 3bets. If he has a wide speculative range then u actually beat way more flush draws.

      Another consideration is the halfpot, and you get such great odds 25%. Won't be too quick to fold though.
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Flop and turn look fine although I can see us raising bigger preflop versus a fishy guy (as we are also OOP).

      I feel that the sample size we have on him is not reliable enough to allow us to use the AF, let alone the AF on the river.

      With that being said, while he could have draws that he can bluff on the river there are many more Kx hands, AQ/Q9 hands, JJ, etc that would valuebet.

      So I would ck/fold as well.