[NL20-NL50] NL50 anon TT

    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey there,

      This hand was played against a 57/6 fish over ~60 hands. The fish was passive on flop and turn with very low fold to c-bet(<30) and was very aggressive on the river. His river AF was 7 and had 60-70 river AFq.

      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      Prima
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($37.87) 76bb
      UTG+1 ($51.50) 103bb
      CO ($78.50) 157bb
      BTN ($19.50) 39bb
      Hero (SB) ($108.14) 216bb
      BB ($71.82) 144bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is SB T T
      UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $2

      Flop: 3 9 6 ($5, 2 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, UTG calls $3.50

      Turn: 2 ($12, 2 players)
      Hero bets $7.25, UTG calls $7.25

      River: K ($26.50, 2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG goes all-in $24.62, Hero calls $24.62

      I think we all agree I bet turn too little and should do it 9€ instead. Also flop bet could be bigger.

      However, the real question is about the river with less than potsize left in the stack. Ultimately we have a bluff catcher and against a fish who likes picking up pots on the river I decided to play straight forward and c/c. My problem though is, how often are fish really going to try and pick up a pot when their stacks are at risk and the board gets very ugly? From experience all-ins on the river are very seldom bluffs or overplays.

      With the SPR I think block bet is just a waste of money against this opponent, but please some thoughts on this?

      Another question is what about a shove on the river for value? This opponent is clearly very bad and that could be possible as well.

      So, all in all, I think c/f, c/c and shove are all about close EV wise and I could really use some perspective here. :)

      Furthermore, a friend of mine suggested overbet shove on the turn. Would you consider that a viable option?

      Thanks,
      burek2000
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think most of his double floating range on Turn is something with a higher spade. I don't think he turns sets into bluffs on the River.

      So the main question here is whether he floats two streets with weaker pairs and then bluffs the River after his showdown value decreases on the 4th spade River. And perhaps you might want to ask whether he value bets worse flushes himself.

      I think given his low fold to Flop and Turn cbet, he will have many hands like QsJd.

      My guess is that from the description you gave, this guy doesn't value bet thin, doesn't turn stuff into bluffs all that often (huge disparity with River AF and Flop Turn AF), and floats Flop and Turn here with all Js-As hands (low Flop and Turn fold to cbet). That would make this a fold. If some of my assumptions are wrong here then it could shift towards a call.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by mbml
      I think most of his double floating range on Turn is something with a higher spade. I don't think he turns sets into bluffs on the River.

      So the main question here is whether he floats two streets with weaker pairs and then bluffs the River after his showdown value decreases on the 4th spade River. And perhaps you might want to ask whether he value bets worse flushes himself.

      I think given his low fold to Flop and Turn cbet, he will have many hands like QsJd.

      My guess is that from the description you gave, this guy doesn't value bet thin, doesn't turn stuff into bluffs all that often (huge disparity with River AF and Flop Turn AF), and floats Flop and Turn here with all Js-As hands (low Flop and Turn fold to cbet). That would make this a fold. If some of my assumptions are wrong here then it could shift towards a call.
      On the flop I think he calls any pair+ and any xx:spade: .

      On the turn I think he still continues with any 9x, 6x, pair+x:spade: , any xJ-A:spade: and of course 2-p+. On the river however, I have no idea what his shipping range is. On the river all I know is that he is aggressive, but I haven't seen a showdown from him before nor was he in a spot that would put all his chips at risk and that's why I think it's kind of guessing game and maybe that's the reason to just fold in order to reduce variance.

      On the other hand, considering the range I've put him on a river shove becomes more viable imo.

      Thanks for your input. :)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      dont like a shove cos I think you are behind his calling range. With Qs it gets thin already.

      I'm leaning towards c/f but c/c may be fine.
    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Hey,

      Some nice discussion here. I think when we bet he likely doesn't call worse, especially as 9s is out so we need him to call with the 8s? Pretty optimistic.

      When we check and he bets, we need to find some bluffs we think he has. I think if somebody has a 9 here they are very likely to just check back and hopefulyl win rather than turn into a bluff. Ialso don't see villain betting 8s for value.


      For that reason, I'd c/f.