[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 66 flop semibluff raise

    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      SB: $60.97 (121.9 bb)
      BB: $75.60 (151.2 bb)
      MP: $55.95 (111.9 bb)
      CO: $17.50 (35 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $50.70 (101.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6 6
      MP raises to $1.50, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 4 5 3 (2 players)
      MP bets $3.50, Hero raises to $11.50, MP raises to $28.50, Hero raises to $49.20 and is all-in, MP calls $20.70

      Turn: ($102.15) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($102.15) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Anon table.

      MP played 23/22 after 120 hands, AFq 70, flopcbet 80.

      Is this a good spot for raise/broke? He could be in trouble with overpairs, draws if I raise. Or the fact that he pots on this board shows big strength, and maybe he could be more willing to go broke? I have 10 outs for that case, or 8 if he has a flushdraw, but then I'm ahead on the flop...

      I have around ~41% against a possible broke range, plus he could fold sometimes, so I guess it could be +EV.

      Board: 5:club: 4:club: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    58.84%  57.37%   1.48% { JJ+, 55-33, A2s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, 8c7c, Ac3c }
      BU     41.16%  39.68%   1.48% { 6h6c }
  • 3 replies
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      I think it is fine.

      Flop sizing is suspicious but I believe that most people have specific sizings for specific boards, not for specific hands.

      Also, by raising we put a lot of pressure on his medium-strength hands like 77-TT, and also on hands like Ax or Tc9c.
    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      I think raise flop it's fine, but I would make it 8.50$. And I would fold to his re-raise.
    • pleno1
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596

      I think he has a big hand, but a big hand to him could be all voerpairs.

      Vs all overpairs, combo draws sets etc we still have 12 outs, so we are flipping vs his range, when we raise vs his pot size bet it looks supremely strong and he can start folding 77-tt. Because we want this part of his range to fold I would make it slightly bigger incase he gets stubborn. So $10 or something in that region, $10.25 perhaps looks strong would be my advice.