[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 50 JJ 3bet pot vs shove on the flop

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      On Game, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $57.14 (114.3 bb)
      MP: $22 (44 bb)
      CO: $42.10 (84.2 bb)
      BTN: $53.40 (106.8 bb)
      SB: $169.24 (338.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $49.25 (98.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
      MP posts BB OOP, UTG folds, MP checks, CO raises to $1.50, BTN folds, SB calls $1.25, Hero raises to $6.60, MP folds, CO calls $5.10, SB folds

      Flop: ($15.20) 8 K 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $7, CO raises to $35.50 and is all-in, Hero folds


      My logic in this spot is ~ "I'm either far behind or slightly ahead" especially since he can have combo draws here.

      Any reason to play it differently?

      Also I don't think my bet sizing is bad here, don't think I should be betting more with a strong had either.
  • 9 replies
    • pleno1
      pleno1
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      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Hey,

      Pre flop I would go a little smaller, I spoke about going smaller previously in the AQhh hand and this is similar here, yes we want to raise, but we don't want to go so big that everybody folds everything.

      I'd raise to $5-$5.50.

      Flop is pretty difficult.

      If we think he comes along with all of his flush draws and some random 56s hands as well as shoving his 8x/kx and sometimes 99/tt then I think we can jsut about call here.

      Try running the numbers vs

      Kx, good flush draws
      Kx, good flush draws, some 8s
      Kx, good flush draws, some 8s, 99-tt
      Kx, good flush draws, some 8s, 99-tt and couple combos 56 kind of hands

      And let me know what you come up with.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      X/C F IMO :rolleyes:
    • pleno1
      pleno1
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      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      X/C F IMO :rolleyes:
      Have you tried doing the numbers I posted in the 2nd post?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by pleno1
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      X/C F IMO :rolleyes:
      Have you tried doing the numbers I posted in the 2nd post?
      Your numbers will tell us wheter whe should B/C or B/F the flop :) . I'll run them anyways:

      Kx, good flush draws


      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 8hKd4h
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 16.50% 16.50% 0.00% { JsJc }
      MP3 83.50% 83.50% 0.00% { AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, AKo, KJo+ }


      (You forgot some hands like sets, KK+ in his strong range so our equity is even worse)


      Kx, good flush draws, some 8s


      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 8hKd4h
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 27.53% 27.53% 0.00% { JsJc }
      MP3 72.47% 72.47% 0.00% { J8s, T8s, 98s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, AKo, KJo+ }


      Kx, good flush draws, some 8s, 99-tt


      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 8hKd4h
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 41.54% 41.54% 0.00% { JsJc }
      MP3 58.46% 58.46% 0.00% { TT-99, J8s, T8s, 98s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, AKo, KJo+ }


      Kx, good flush draws, some 8s, 99-tt and couple combos 56 kind of hands


      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 8hKd4h
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 45.63% 45.63% 0.00% { JsJc }
      MP3 54.37% 54.37% 0.00% { TT-99, J8s, T8s, 98s, 75s, 65s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, AKo, KJo+ }

      THIS IS BEST CASE.


      CONCLUSION: If we Bet it's a B/F


      My Question :D : Isn't it better to play our hand as a bluffcatcher? I don't think we can bet 2 streets for value, especially with his high foldtoCB.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
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      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      If you decide to check flop I guess you have to x/ship as turn would suck on so many cards and he is likely to bet/call all his draws.

      The good part is that we have easy turn usually if he checks :) .
    • pleno1
      pleno1
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      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Great post Farmarchist.

      Now do you know how to work out what % we need to be right for us to bet/call?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by pleno1
      Great post Farmarchist.

      Now do you know how to work out what % we need to be right for us to bet/call?
      We have to invest $28.5 to win $57.7 so we need ~49% equity.


      And yes we could potentially ship some turns with some reads... But firstly I stick to X/C flop and then see how it develops
    • pleno1
      pleno1
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      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      Cool so, you have evaluated all the ranges we have and at VERY ebst we have 45% so with the maths you have done you have seen we need 49% therefore it looks like a c/f.

      Good work!
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by pleno1
      Cool so, you have evaluated all the ranges we have and at VERY ebst we have 45% so with the maths you have done you have seen we need 49% therefore it looks like a c/f.

      Good work!
      Oh lol I think I made a mistake. We have to call $28.5 so sometimes we lose 28.5$ but some other times we can win a pot of $57.7 with it. So we only need to win about 1 in 3 times. We only make this vs a wide range so it's still a Bet/fold in most cases.

      Do you agree with check/calling the flop by the way?