[NL20-NL50] Qts Nl50 Turn&R decision

    • franeczek
      franeczek
      Global
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP2: $92.74 (185.5 bb)
      BTN: $11.55 (23.1 bb)
      CO: $88.28 (176.6 bb)
      BB: $51 (102 bb)
      Hero (MP3): $50 (100 bb)
      UTG+2: $85.63 (171.3 bb)
      SB: $51.94 (103.9 bb)
      MP1: $47.59 (95.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T Q
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($3.50) J K 9 (2 players)
      SB bets $2.49, Hero raises to $8, SB calls $5.51

      Turn: ($19.50) J (2 players)
      SB bets $13.89, Hero calls $13.89

      River: ($47.28) 9 (2 players)
      SB bets $28.55 and is all-in, Hero calls $26.61 and is all-in

      Results:
      $100.50 pot ($3 rake)
      Final Board: J K 9 J 9
      Hero mucked T Q and lost (-$50 net)
      SB showed A 9 and won $97.50 ($47.50 net)


      Villian is huge aggresive Whale 34/17/48 (VPI/PFR/AFQ).
      What is the best play on Turn and River?? Should I just ship the Turn? I thought that given the SPR we wil get it in on the River anyway. Would you ever consider folding this vs fish on the River?
  • 4 replies
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      On the river you really dosen't beat so much other then Kx, brutal river. Would prob Just go with the hand on turn we want value from all his kings and all his draws and all his jacks. There are alot of scarecards that might "Break" the action. personally I would just fold the river as we play bluff catcher vs a king.
    • franeczek
      franeczek
      Global
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      Originally posted by Saren113
      On the river you really dosen't beat so much other then Kx, brutal river. Would prob Just go with the hand on turn we want value from all his kings and all his draws and all his jacks. There are alot of scarecards that might "Break" the action. personally I would just fold the river as we play bluff catcher vs a king.
      I didn't thought that he might play 9x that way, so just thought that he has some pair+draw hand. Still shipping Turn would be way better cause he isn't probably folding anyway and I didn't know what are his bluffing tendencies on River. Just when I played didn't wanted to isolate myself for the Jx hands with the raise....
      Thought that I am in way ahead/way behind situation on the Turn and the River sucks but on the other hand I have like 3:1 odds....

      EDIT now I see how paranid I become cause I didn't want to raise T to iso myself vs boat cause they always have boat...Still there is more combo of pair +draw, Jx that have trips for me to have +EV turn ship
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      Whales tend to dosen't fold! So few combos of boats tho especielly against, like almost all of his pair got a gutshot aswell so I think that he will never ever fold a pair+gutshot on this turn, so therefor i would just be super aggresive on this flop.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      I vote for shoving turn too. :D

      You say he is bad aggressive so will have many Jx there, KT, KQ, maybe T9 as well, possibly T8. I doubt he ever plays KK or 99 like that and will rarely, if ever, play KJ like that because it's top two on the flop, he usually gets it in. I just think he caps his range when he bet/calls flop instead of getting it in so I'm basically not afraid of any boat. Once every 100 years he has J9 but whatevs, we more than compensate when we 'cooler' his Jx and worse.

      Yes, SPR is low but that also means you don't have FE on the turn -> great to get value. There's also the problem that there are scare cards for his KQ, KT and Jx which you don't want to see.