[NL20-NL50] NL50 QQ FH river

    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Reproduzir mão

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $64.56
      MP3 (Hero):
      $78.86
      CO:
      $96.79
      BU:
      $72.53
      SB:
      $40.69
      BB:
      $62.40


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, Q.
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($3.75) A, A, 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50.

      Turn: ($8.75) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00.

      River: ($18.75) Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $12.00.

      Final Pot: $30.75.

      Villain 670 hands
      24/20
      call open CO 10% (9% overall)
      fold to cbet 44% (16)
      WTSD 34%
      WWSF 45%

      Decided to c/c turn since turn was a bad card for me o value bet vs PPs. River I thought that he is betting Ax either way and I give opportunity to some random bluff he wants to make. My problem river is that I lose to AJ and AQ and I win vs JJ and 22. These hands are all in his range. 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of JJ = 6 combos I win. 2 combos of AQ and 6 combos of AJ = 8 combos I loose. And I am not positive that he would call a shove with 22 for instance.

      EDIT: I assume he would fold trips to a shove.
  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      You block AQ, he may not have AJo. I think this makes it more of a shove. It gets tricky if he has all combos of AJo. I also think he may call AX some % of the time.

      You should think about your own opening range too. If you are tight I think he never calls AJo. But his 9% seems to be on the high side so he may have it.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Why are you cbetting the flop? Personally, I don't cbet QQ as a default there but it can definitely be done. What's your reasoning though?

      Your opponent looks like a reg so his preflop calling range should be affected by:
      a) your opening range
      b) who's left to act behind.

      With fishy players in the blinds he has more Axs imo and if you are a wide opener he can have AJo like Galvin said. If there are squeezers behind he probably doesn't flat as often or will flat AK, QQ+ too.

      Now, looking at his showdown stats he seems to like calling. Would you consider donking river? If we don't consider he calls enough Ax here vs a check/shove, what about vs a donk shove or a more standar-ish overbet? You think he might bet/fold 22 on river but would he fold if you shove it? Yes, line is silly, unbalanced, whatever you want but my thinking is let's use those calling station tendencies he has. If we don't put all AJ in his range we are 50/50 against his FH range on the river. If he calls less than that when we check/shove, donking should definitely be considered.

      Last thing to think about here is: if you rate him as a floater, why don't you put KTs in his range? Float flop, get equity on turn, make broadway on river.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Nice analysis, thanks for the effort. With that post you gave me a lot to think about.

      So, I usually never c/c as PFR flop, unless in spots SBvsbb when I have trashy Ax and it comes Axx. In this particular case I really don't mind cbetting cause he is calling every PP. If I check and he checks back, lots of turn cards will make it difficult for me to value bet (since his 2nd pair turned into a 3rd). Thoughts on this?

      There was a fishy guy in SB so he could be opening his calling range. And I agree, he can have KT in his range, although I don't see him floating that flop 100% of times with that hand.

      Your thoughts on river I find them very interesting. Basically before I check river I must have already decided if I'm going to c/c or c/shove. If I think 1st option is best that I might as well donk overbet. And if I get re-shipped? Though spot...
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Regarding the donk on the river I'd usually do it if I could shove and get called by about the same range that would call a smaller overbet. It's not something I have a huge list of calcs on that proves it's more +EV. :D

      That said, I don't completely disagree with a line like betting 1.5x pot and folding to a shove but this is very very very specific of him just flatting small boats. All the idea about overbetting river is that you are about 50/50 against his FH range so however you get the money in against that doesn't affect you but if a shove here gets you some Ax or KT calls it's to consider. By the same token, if a check/shove makes him fold other boats and only call better, that's also not great which you did consider right from the beginning.

      What I would like to add is that his river betting range COULD be wider. I can't say for sure it is but in some cases he could be good enough to value bet a hand like Qx because you look like TT or lower very often with your flop and turn line.

      Basically, river can probably allow for a lot of creativity on your part.

      If I check and he checks back, lots of turn cards will make it difficult for me to value bet (since his 2nd pair turned into a 3rd). Thoughts on this?


      True but when you bet he also folds some bluff he bets on the flop. That usually evens out and he doesn't fold all his 2nd pair type hands that turn into 3rd. Folds most but some still get stubborn because you can't have Ax.

      If maybe you are concerned about balance, you probably have enough Ax hands from MP and nobody will notice slight unbalance.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Is it even good to X/C turn?

      He will check behind most PP's so the only thing he bluffs with our floated hands like KT. Our hand is pretty face-up so he'll barrel most rivers... So maybe it's just a X/F OTT?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Is it even good to X/C turn?

      He will check behind most PP's so the only thing he bluffs with our floated hands like KT. Our hand is pretty face-up so he'll barrel most rivers... So maybe it's just a X/F OTT?
      I think it is a call on the turn but that's another reason I'm not really behind the flop cbet. I think we simply make our opponent's range stronger than we want it. Sure, some call 100% of flop cbets so then it's not a concern but if he folds sometimes, then his 'air' on the turn is less than when we don't bet the flop so our bluffcatch becomes thinner.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Really liked this discussion Emanuel. Cheers.