[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL20. QQ vs fish wet flop

    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
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      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($19.74)
      BB ($25.07)
      UTG ($22.71)
      UTG+1 ($20.18)
      CO ($34.40)
      Hero ($20)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: Q:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.60, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.70, fold, BB calls $1.50, fold

      FLOP ($4.10) 7:diamond: 6:diamond: T:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $7.20, Hero raises to $18.30 (AI), BB calls $11.10

      TURN ($40.70) 7:diamond: 6:diamond: T:club: 8:heart:

      RIVER ($40.70) 7:diamond: 6:diamond: T:club: 8:heart: J:heart:


      Can we get it in on this flop vs 36/3/2.3 AF guy? Don't have much more info, it's anon tables.

      If I give him this range 77-55,ATs,KTs,98s,ATo,KTo,98o

      We have 46.5%.

      If my math is OK, then we can shove if we are good ~40% of the time.

      Is this all true?
  • 7 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I think you mostly see there either draws or sets. Sometimes he would show you AT or JJ, but top should not be that often his c/r range. I would never b/f that spot my overpair,, since they tend to have draws a lot more tha set and since I have put in over 20bb I think it should be fine spot to play for stacks.

      You should have enough times AK/AQ or some random 3-bet hands that you can comfortable b/f your spot and since you most of the times(or maybe never) don´t 3-bet 77/66/98 then it is very profitable spot him to c/r your c-bet most of his pre-flop calling range if you consider folding there your overpairs- although fish does not think that level.

      best regards,
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Do you think he would check/raise KTo and ATo for value on the flop? With 55 as well?

      I think his c/r range will look more like this:


      Board: 7:diamond: 8:diamond: T:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    40.29%  39.77%   0.52% { QhQc }
      UTG+1  59.71%  59.19%   0.52% { TT-77, 98s, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d }


      I also think he never folds if you shove so shoving becomes worse. You could consider calling since you get good enough pot odds but you have no good turn cards and no stacks to use position. He also looks like a passive player postflop so he might not check/raise all those draws I included. The fewer draws, the worse our equity gets. I think you get called by worse often but once you get raised your are either slightly ahead or way behind.

      Although it's a situation where folding sucks, unless you are very confident in his aggression with draws or worse made hands you probably have to fold.

      Whatever you do though, it's a small edge you want to take or not. I think you should consider how the results of this hand would affect your game. Can you lose a stack 50% of the time or more and still play your best game? If your game gets much worse when you lose, just fold, limit the losses here and profit in the next hands. Work on mindset before taking these small edges that may hurt your game in the session when you lose.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Vs such a passive guy we have a B/F. I also agree with Emanuel but we have to discount more drawing hands I think.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Vs such a passive guy we have a B/F. I also agree with Emanuel but we have to discount more drawing hands I think.
      Yeah, I added like ALL good draws there which is very optimistic and still we aren't too happy with our hand. If best case scenario doesn't look that good for us, average scenario is obviously going to be worse.

      LE: Forgot to add that since he cold calls a 3bet vs UTG he might actually slowplay KK+ some of the time as well so our equity gets lower still.
    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
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      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      Thanks for replies guys, especially Manu. Makes much sense, something I maybe not always thought about. :f_love:
    • Pkrpains
      Pkrpains
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      Joined: 04.10.2010 Posts: 382
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Prima
      SB ($51.90)
      BB ($50)
      UTG ($33.35)
      UTG+1 ($99.59)
      CO ($58.69)
      Hero ($75.44)

      Dealt to Hero K:diamond: Q:club:

      UTG calls $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.75, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.25

      FLOP ($4.25) Q:spade: 6:spade: T:spade:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.75, UTG calls $2.75

      TURN ($9.75) Q:spade: 6:spade: T:spade: K:club:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $7, UTG raises to $14, Hero folds

      UTG wins $22.57


      Manu, is it of the same category about small edges? Opp is again, a loose passive fish, even more passive than in the OP
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
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      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      I'd say he is now even less likely to bluff (board and action) so I think there prob isn't even an edge here. I would fold. He is raising vs a raise pre, bet flop, bet turn. He can have flushes, straights, sets. Your top 2 is not awesome at all. Think of your own range as well. You also have here hands like AJ, nut flushes, sets AND AA with As is better than KQ equity wise because it is NEVER drawing dead. Flush outs are always live, gutshot is often live while KQ has only 4 nut outs.

      In general I think most players and deifnitely fish are more honest as the streets progress. Heck, most fish are always honest but preflop they don't fold because they can hit quads with any holding and then on the flop a backdoor seems to nice to let go for one bet. :f_biggrin: