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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - 4bet/fold AQ??

    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey everybody,

      Yesterday played very very bad unfortunaly :( . Here is another hand where I lost a stack.

      So, the stats:
      14% 3bet

      Normally I'm folding here because even aggro people won't 3bet loose vs UTG.

      I looked to my 3bet popup and saw that he already did 3bet 2 times vs UTG! and 1 time vs MP!

      This was first 3B vs hero though :P

      What do we do???? Looks like we're pretty much commited with a 4bet ?

      If we think this is his go broke range , then we have to 4bet/fold:
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 24.42% 23.05% 1.37% { AsQc }
      MP3 75.58% 74.21% 1.37% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

      If we add JJ and AQs it's still 4B/fold. If we add TT we can 4bet/broke...

      So wayyyy to optimistic 4bet/broke in this spot :(

      Now the real question: Do we 4bet? :P

      Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2005204
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (UTG): $26.04
      MP: $58.24
      CO: $33.70
      BTN: $20.75
      SB: $37.86
      BB: $27.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A :spade: Q :club:
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 1 fold, BTN raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7.50, 1 fold, BTN raises to $20.75 all in, Hero calls $13.25

      Flop: ($42.60) 3 :spade: 4 :club: 7 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Turn: ($42.60) T :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($42.60) 2 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)
  • 5 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,015
      if i 4bet it'd be because i assume that he's insane and i'm not folding. :f_biggrin:
      i prefer calling, hitting something and stacking off... or do i?

      i think that even if he's an aggrofish folding is okay :P it's a quite strong move in any case.
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Calling doesn't look great to me with smaller SPR. (Squeeze + his stack)
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      I think calling sucks a lot. MP probably calls if we flat, we don't have position, our hand gets worse and worse the more players are in the pot so I don't think I can make a +EV call here.

      With regards to 4bet or fold it is quite an interesting situation. Do you think he 3bets lighter as a squeeze? 100 hands aren't enough to tell positional 3bet stats imo so I would mostly go with dynamics I've seen from him. If you 4bet though, you aren't commited. If I want to have a bluff 4betting range here I would just click it back to make it just over 20bbs. With that sizing you can actually fold if your opponent shoves the range you gave him and I think he either:
      a) folds some better hands/good equity hands that he 3bet
      b) calls worse than AQ so you get value with your 4bet.

      Sure, getting called is not your best result since it will be an awkward spot for you but you'll learn how to play it eventually.

      Personally, I would fold. His actions show strength so even though after 100 hands he seems looser than average I will give him credit because of the positions.

      One final thing to consider which I talked about in other hands and I'm sort of trying to work into a poker game is your personal reaction to the result of this hand. Yes, ideally you don't care about the result and play long term EV but most players are not capable of this so they have to look at the next best thing. If you lose, how much does your game deteriorate? Let's say you lose this all in about 50% of the time (he sometimes folds to your 4bet with that sizing and you sometimes hit postflop when he doesn't). So you lose 80bb half of the time, do you tilt because of this? How much less do you win and for how many hands compared to your normal game? If this small mathematical edge actually ruins your long term game you should not take the edge. The maths decision here doesn't factor in your mindset. It assumes you continue playing your best but that is rarely the case.
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,015
      fair points.

      i also didn't notice his stack :f_biggrin:
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Indeed very clear and I also think your last point is indeed underrated. Actually, myself, I'm not really tilting about getting bad beats. The thing that tilts me the most is 'Mistake Tilt' (you probably know what I mean) :)