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[NL20-NL50] SH NL25 rush ATo 3bet pot bluffcach R?

    • dooleslovs
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 485
      Full Tilt - $0.25 NL RUSH (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: $47.45
      BTN: $26.17
      Hero (SB): $34.39
      BB: $31.23
      UTG: $24.38
      MP: $25.10

      Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A:club: T:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.75, fold, BTN calls $1.25

      Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) 5:spade: T:heart: 3:heart:
      Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.75, 2 players) J:club:
      Hero bets $4.75, BTN calls $4.75

      River: ($18.25, 2 players) 4:club:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $17.17 and is all-in, Hero calls $17.17

      Vilian 19/16 oR BU 55% fold2resteal 11% 1/9 so I am 3beting for value becouse he will clearly call with worse hands, ATo do not have perfect playablility but considering stats I have it is good for 3bet? I cbet F and T for value against weaker T and draws, and was planning to call brick R. I think he would definantly ch/B his medium showdown value hands, so I think theres enough busted flush draws and evean AK, AQ combos which could have played that way to call his polorised R bet? What do you think?
  • 3 replies
    • Keyser1
      Joined: 19.11.2012 Posts: 14
      Hi dooleslovs,

      I like your 3bet against this player. He's folding to 3bets so infrequently that you're likely to dominate a lot of his Tx and even Ax hands in his defense range. I would add that you should make sure you look at his fold to cbet and fold to cbet in 3bet pot stats. Some players call 3bets wide but play fit-or-fold on the flop and fold to cbets at 60%+. Against those types, it's still correct to 3bet with a polarized range because you're looking for opportunities to make profitable cbet bluffs and turn barrels when your equity improves, and polarized 3betting hands work better for that purpose. Against players who play fit-or-fold, hands like ATo are likely to be trouble on turns and rivers when they finally do call flop.

      As played, I think your river call is good. Your range for betting the turn and checking the river includes AK/AQ/KQ and other draws/bluffs, so I do think villain is likely to shove his missed draws expecting you to be check-folding. I expect to be beat here against this tight looking player somewhat often, especially on that river that completes a few straight draws and 43, but for your call to be +EV you only need to win a little under 33% of the time. At least 1/3 of his range should be bluffs (though it's hard to say for sure without more reads), especially because there aren't a ton of value hands in his range given your Tx that blocks TT and JT and the likelihood that he would raise the flop or turn with sets. He's calling so many 3bets that he has more combinations than normal of missed FDs and possibly other trashy hands, but I'd like a little more information about this villain's tendencies on turns/river to be more confident about the call.
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Is the turn standard and why? :) What do we do we worse Tx on the turn?
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I don't see many JX in his range, and BU shuld be 4betting JJ+ pre. So our hand rates to be the best a lot. We are also firing KQ AQ AK really often and should balance it by betting AT. We have the top kicker after all and villain is never folding TX to a 2nd bet.

      I think an important stat is the fold to FLop cbet in 3bet pots. We want to know whether this guy is really floaty in these spots. Vs someone who folds a lot, it means that he can't have backdoor stuff like KQ so we beat fewer hands on the River. Vs a looser guy he can have many busted draws.

      I think KT is still a bet on the Turn. QT and J9 should be a check.