[NL20-NL50] NL50 anon 99

    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hello,

      I considered villain some kind of a reg at the point of this hand. He was 3-betting a lot and even cold 4-bet twice. His 3-b was about 25% over about 50 hands. On the flop his c-bet was 90%, 100% in 3-b pots. I think T and R stats are useless because of sample size.

      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      Prima
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($23.16) 46bb
      UTG+1 ($51.66) 103bb
      CO ($234.40) 469bb
      Hero (BTN) ($96.25) 193bb
      SB ($82.61) 165bb
      BB ($50) 100bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BTN 9 9
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50

      Flop: A 9 Q ($7.50, 2 players)
      SB bets $4.50, Hero raises to $10.75, SB calls $6.25

      Turn: 6 ($29, 2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $17.25, SB calls $17.25

      River: 8 ($63.50, 2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $64.75, SB calls $51.11

      I think F and T are pretty standard.

      On the river, I can't tell whether shove is too optimistic here or not. I thought after he played c/c T and check R he will seldom have a flush there, but does he call worse? My aim was mostly AQ-AK.

      Best regards,
      burek2000
  • 6 replies
    • Keyser1
      Keyser1
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2012 Posts: 14
      Hi burek,
      You played this hand well. At a regular table with a read that villain is a strong, solid player and with the knowledge that villain perceives you to also be a solid player then shoving the river with 99 is reasonable but a little thin. It's thin because most of your perceived semi-bluffing range got there with the exception of hands like non-spade JT, KJ, etc., which most people float flop with anyway. Thus, if villain has AK then I'd expect him to fold on the river with these stack sizes because he doesn't beat anything. With 99 you could potentially get called by AQ, but I'd expect most regs to re-raise the flop while deep and OOP on this drawy board. I'd also expect AA and QQ to 3bet this flop, which means that his calling range on the river starts to get weighted toward flushes and most non-flush hands are likely to fold.

      Having said all that, that's only against a player who you know well. At at anonymous table with a 50 hand sample on someone who appears to be very aggro (he's 3bet several times, cbet 90%, cbet in 3bet pots 100%) I think this is a clear value shove. For one, his range possibly includes two pairs like A9, A6, A8, but most importantly, you just don't know villain enough to be sure that he's not a station. He could always level himself into a call with Ax when he has such an aggro image. You have a set in a 3bet pot against a player who you don't know much about. Checking is a bit too weak. Shove and let him figure out what he wants to pay you off with.

      I'd also note that it's important for you to be aware of your own image even at these anonymous games. If you've been active and maybe have been caught bluffing before then the river is an even clearer shove.

      One point of your analysis that I disagree with is that you think villain won't have a flush after he check-calls the turn and checks the river. Check-calling a flush on the turn is imo the best line. Your range is still perceived to contain bluffs, many of which could fire the river, especially on a board changing card like another spade. You're also still likely to value shove sets. Check-calling the turn with a flush might lose some value against an AQ that checks river (if AQ bet/calls AI on the turn, which is likely but somewhat debatable), but against the entirety of button's range I think there's no reason to shove a flush.

      Lastly, this is possibly inconsequential but I do prefer just putting villain all-in by betting $52 rather than shoving all-in yourself. Whether they know it or not, most players have a psychological response to seeing all your chips getting shoved in the middle. All-in just looks a little more threatening and dangerous compared to $52. Of course, I'm not saying that this is likely to make a huge difference in the chance villain calls, but it's still worth doing if it leads to a lighter call-down 1% of the time. Against a weak, recreational player I would often just bet $50 on the river and leave him with $1.11. I've found it increases their calling frequencies substantially. Weak players don't like the idea of losing all of their money in one hand. Leave him a buck to play a SNG!
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Solid first post :f_biggrin: :f_cool:

      Welcome!
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Very nice post and welcome to the team! :f_thumbsup:
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Well that's a good start! I particularly like the river sizing, I found it works much more often than just shoving the lot, for reasons you pointed out.

      Welcome to the gang!

      Mal.
    • Keyser1
      Keyser1
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2012 Posts: 14
      aww, thanks for the warm welcome everyone! <3 I look forward to contributing a lot and learning from all of you in the process.

      I want to clarify something about villain's line with a flush on the turn:

      Originally posted by Keyser1
      One point of your analysis that I disagree with is that you think villain won't have a flush after he check-calls the turn and checks the river. Check-calling a flush on the turn is imo the best line. Your range is still perceived to contain bluffs, many of which could fire the river, especially on a board changing card like another spade. You're also still likely to value shove sets. Check-calling the turn with a flush might lose some value against an AQ that checks river (if AQ bet/calls AI on the turn, which is likely but somewhat debatable), but against the entirety of button's range I think there's no reason to shove a flush.
      While I think check-calling a flush as villain is optimal I don't necessarily expect an unknown 50nl reg to think the same. I imagine a lot of players will check-shove a flush on the turn for the usual (somewhat poor, imo) reasons: being afraid of a 4th spade (a valid point against button's sets, but a good card if villain is bluffing with a spadeless gutter; it's also rare, 8/46=17% chance) or being afraid of the board pairing (as if shoving turn stops that ;) ). So I do think the fact that villain didn't shove the turn discounts him having a flush some percent, which is another argument in favor of you value shoving the river.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Wow, a new evaluator!

      Thank you for the first and very in-depth hand analysis of the hand, it's really the way one can learn the most.

      I completely agree with everything you've said. I don't think many players, not even better regs on nl50 are capable of check/calling the flush there, so I suppose it's a clear value shove. I just got a bit confused whether a shove is too thin when he showed AA in this spot. Also, later on I found out he was quite fishy which is another reason to shove for value. Just his stats at the point of the hand suggested more of a regular player.

      Hope to see more evaluations from you in the future. :f_thumbsup:

      Welcome!