call20 rule

  • 29 replies
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Are you planning on hitting sets with suited connectors?
    • chilliyen
      chilliyen
      Gold
      Joined: 12.04.2010 Posts: 158
      Perhaps u shud look into implied odds, but only a spec hand all in all.....
    • Festfingre
      Festfingre
      Silver
      Joined: 19.07.2011 Posts: 70
      I would say no.

      Three of a kind with pockepair is much harder to spot than a flush,
      and combined with the odds of hitting a set i don't think it adds up.
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      I did not mean to get 3 of a kind. I was thinking about if i could use the call 20 rule when i have 89suited to get get a flush or a straight. Isn't the call 20 rule based on implied odds?

      Heres my example:

      I know that my opponent overplays his hands.
      i want to call him with some suited connectors to get paid
      since i got implied odds. Can i use the call20 rule that way?

      Thanks.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by hvard92
      I did not mean to get 3 of a kind. I was thinking about if i could use the call 20 rule when i have 89suited to get get a flush or a straight. Isn't the call 20 rule based on implied odds?

      Heres my example:

      I know that my opponent overplays his hands.
      i want to call him with some suited connectors to get paid
      since i got implied odds. Can i use the call20 rule that way?

      Thanks.
      Again, are you planning on hitting a set? The point of call20 rule is to flop a set and get it in with 80% equity so you get enough money from stacking him for every time you check fold. You hit a set 11.8% of the time.

      You will hit a flush or a strait on the flop less then 2% of the time. And even when you do flop a flush it will be way harder to stack him and he will have 30% equity with an overpair+fd when you do stackoff on the flop.

      So no, you cannot use call20 rule with suited connectors. If you think you have no fold equity preflop(he always has AA and his never folding any flop) then you just fold everything but PP.
    • zilltine
      zilltine
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.03.2010 Posts: 395
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      Originally posted by hvard92
      I did not mean to get 3 of a kind. I was thinking about if i could use the call 20 rule when i have 89suited to get get a flush or a straight. Isn't the call 20 rule based on implied odds?

      Heres my example:

      I know that my opponent overplays his hands.
      i want to call him with some suited connectors to get paid
      since i got implied odds. Can i use the call20 rule that way?

      Thanks.
      Again, are you planning on hitting a set? The point of call20 rule is to flop a set and get it in with 80% equity so you get enough money from stacking him for every time you check fold. You hit a set 11.8% of the time.

      You will hit a flush or a strait on the flop less then 2% of the time. And even when you do flop a flush it will be way harder to stack him and he will have 30% equity with an overpair+fd when you do stackoff on the flop.

      So no, you cannot use call20 rule with suited connectors. If you think you have no fold equity preflop(he always has AA and his never folding any flop) then you just fold everything but PP.
      If he ALWAYS has AA and NEVER fold its god damn for sure insanely great +EV to call with 89s having 20x effective behind. I could make a living if i get this spot non-stop 1-tabling NL2
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      My plan is not to flop a straight or a flush. I want to draw my hand and crack his aces unless he makes it very expensive. But i've got my question answered. But forget about the call20 rule then. i have another question.

      If i know my opponent has QQ+ and i want to crack them with some
      suited connectors because i know i'll get paid and i know he can't get away from them even if i put him all in. Isn't this profitable? And how deep should we be to make it profitable? If it's not, i really cannot see why because you have so much implied odds if you play against the right type of opponent.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by hvard92
      My plan is not to flop a straight or a flush. I want to draw my hand and crack his aces unless he makes it very expensive. But i've got my question answered. But forget about the call20 rule then. i have another question.

      If i know my opponent has QQ+ and i want to crack them with some
      suited connectors because i know i'll get paid and i know he can't get away from them even if i put him all in. Isn't this profitable? And how deep should we be to make it profitable? If it's not, i really cannot see why because you have so much implied odds if you play against the right type of opponent.
      Its not that simple. You can't just say he has QQ+ and his never folding any flop. He can have AK in his range and you don't get to stack him when you got T9s on 876 flop, he can have QQ, KK and you don't stack him with your T9s on A99 type of flop and sometimes your going to get it in bad vs AA. So there is never a spot where he absolutely never ever folds his value hands on a bad board. Like if the flop comes with 5 hearts or 5 to strait and you have the nuts his not gonna call your river jam when he plays the board.

      In general what usually happens when you call 3bets with SC against a super tight range is that your going to flop some sort of marginal draw and what usually happens is that your commited to calling flop and turn putting even more money in behind and you pretty much have to get paid 100% of the time on the river to make it marginally profitable. If he sometimes c/f rivers then your gonna be losing money.

      And whats more you really don't have to extend your 3bet defend range vs a guy 3betting under 5% since he clearly doesn't abuse you.
    • Ramble
      Ramble
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 1,421
      Originally posted by MatejM47

      And whats more you really don't have to extend your 3bet defend range vs a guy 3betting under 5% since he clearly doesn't abuse you.
      I think this sums up the whole thread...
    • zilltine
      zilltine
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.03.2010 Posts: 395
      Even if i think that defending 89s vs QQ+ range is retarded just because playing with 21% Equity and hoping to have post-flop edge to make up for that is plain stupid.

      I can not say that reasoning "i should pass +EV play just because villain doesnt exploit me" is any less retarded
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      Originally posted by zilltine
      Even if i think that defending 89s vs QQ+ range is retarded just because playing with 21% Equity and hoping to have post-flop edge to make up for that is plain stupid.

      I can not say that reasoning "i should pass +EV play just because villain doesnt exploit me" is any less retarded
      and how is calling +EV?

      as it was already been said, you flop some random draw (or worse, a pair), pay a few more bets as an underdog and don't even always get paid in the end when you hit, so where are the monies?
    • zilltine
      zilltine
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.03.2010 Posts: 395
      Originally posted by Tomaloc

      and how is calling +EV?

      as it was already been said, you flop some random draw (or worse, a pair), pay a few more bets as an underdog and don't even always get paid in the end when you hit, so where are the monies?
      If you read first paragraph of my post, u`ll see i dont think that call is +EV. It can be in very extreme unrealistic circumstances, but thats not the point. Point is, that this:
      "You really don't have to "--" since he clearly doesn't abuse you."

      might lead OP or/and other readers to making huge amount of mistakes, missing best EV plays, failing to exploit others and costing much more than defending 89s vs 2% 3bet range.
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      Im not talking about nl100-200 or what you usually play Matejm47. I'm talking about NL2-NL10. and im talking about donks, real donks that doesn't fold no matter what. They can't fold their big pairs. Since you have Diamond status you probably are playing alot higher than me. I don't know but it seems like you taking your knowledge from your level.
      You said: "He can have AK in his range and you don't get to stack him when you got T9s on 876 flop". Again, i don't talk about floping a straight or a flush. As i said earlier. I was looking for more of a drawing flop to make him protect his hand. And people at my level pays off too see if they are beat.

      So my simple question is really: Can i call with suited connectors if i know im gonna get paid. If i KNOW im gonna get paid. Hope you guys get my point now.
    • zilltine
      zilltine
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.03.2010 Posts: 395
      Originally posted by hvard92

      So my simple question is really: Can i call with suited connectors if i know im gonna get paid. If i KNOW im gonna get paid. Hope you guys get my point now.
      It doesnt really matter if you play NL2 or NL200 as long as you have heads-up pot vs same villain. It is much closer than i originally thought you will hit:
      2pair : 2.02%
      trips : 1.47%
      FH : 0.092%
      Straight: 1.306%
      Flush : 0.842%
      Quads: 0.01%
      So you will outflop AA 5.74% of the time i assume you have 90%(thats prob optimistic) equity with these hands on avg. That leaves you winning his stack 5.157% of the time, losing your stack 0.573% of the time and losing 1/20 of stack 94.26% of the time.

      If 5.74%20-(94.26%1+0.573%20)>0 then you dont have to play draws to make it +ev call.

      Rest depends on how good you will do with draws, but given your plan to "make him pay with his overpairs vs your draw" i doubt u`ll do very good.

      Hope that helps, bold is pretty much the answer you are looking for. Which by the way you could have found by yourself if you wouldn`t be lazy as fuck

      Edit: i`m not saying you will ever be able to make him pay every time in out of theory world.
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      "Hope that helps, bold is pretty much the answer you are looking for. Which by the way you could have found by yourself if you wouldn`t be lazy as fuck"
      I study every other day without saturdays.
      "So you will outflop AA 5.74% of the time i assume you have 90%(thats prob optimistic) equity with these hands on avg."
      I didn't talk abouy floping a hand. I was talking about playing draws.

      The rest is too much math for me yet. So i did not get it.
    • zilltine
      zilltine
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.03.2010 Posts: 395
      Originally posted by hvard92
      "Hope that helps, bold is pretty much the answer you are looking for. Which by the way you could have found by yourself if you wouldn`t be lazy as fuck"
      I study every other day without saturdays.
      "So you will outflop AA 5.74% of the time i assume you have 90%(thats prob optimistic) equity with these hands on avg."
      I didn't talk abouy floping a hand. I was talking about playing draws.

      The rest is too much math for me yet. So i did not get it.
      it is very hard to play draws profitably if you never have fold equity. if SPR is bigger than 10:1 then i can see some reason behind.

      so lets say pot is 4bb, he bets 3/4 pot. You face 3bb bet with 9 outs. You have 18% equity and you have to call 3bb to win 44bb. 82% of the time you will lose 3bb, 18% of the time you will win 44bb. 18%44-82%3=EV(bb/hand) That scenario will occur ~10% of the time (chance of flopping FD).

      To understand anything you have to finish this on your own.
      thats 5th grade math.
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      ofcourse
    • mkjmkjmkj
      mkjmkjmkj
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      here is something i found about implied odds with sc

      A recent thread about using the 5/10 rule to call preflop raises with PPs and suitedconnectors got me thinking about the kind of implied odds required to call preflop raiseswith SCs; people tend to arbitrarily use things like the 5/10 rule, even though I've neverseen any mathematical description of the kind of odds you need to call these raises. I'mgoing to attempt to solve that problem (but I still need some help!).I'll list the conclusions first, and leave the tl;dr math for the bottom for those of you thatwant to peruse it. I also encourage math-head-types to check my math to make sure Ididn't mess anything up.There are two kinds of hands you can flop with SCs: Good made hands (most of whichcan be made by calling with ATC, which of course we don't do) and draws. First, madehands, stolen off some page I googled:
      Odds of flopping...
      Flush: 0.84%Two pair: 2%Trips: 1.35%Full house: 0.09%Quads: 0.01%Straight: 1.31%-------Total: 5.6% (1 in 18 times, 17:1)However, most of the time you will be flopping draws instead of big hands with SCs, andthat's where things get complicated. Let's separate this into two categories: combo drawsand regular draws.
      COMBO DRAWS
      Odds of flopping...
      20 outer (OESD + FD + pair): 0.077%17 outer (Gutshot + FD + pair): 0.153%15 outer (OESD + flush draw): 1.424%14 outer (Pair + flush draw): 1.450%13 outer (Pair + straight draw): 1.147%12 outer (Gutshot + flush draw): 2.664%------------------------Total: 6.9% (1 in 14 times, 13:1)These draws are all hands that can be played profitably after the flop; either you are afavorite against an overpair, or getting AI on the flop is +EV when you take some foldequity (and thus taking down dead money) into account.Combining these big draws with good made hands, you'll have a relatively "big hand" onthe flop 12.5% of the time, or 1 in 8 (very close to how often you will flop a set with anoverpair). However, since a set is a near-invincible hand and you still have to improvewith these draws, you can't say that you also need about 7:1 odds to call with a suitedconnector. Your average equity on the flop with these made hands and combo drawsagainst an overpair is 66% (the made hands go from 75%-99%; the combo draws rangefrom 45%-65%); compare this with sets, where your equity is generally 90+%.
      REGULAR DRAWS
      126

      Odds of flopping...
      9 outer (flush draw): 5.2%8 outer (straight draw): 8.0%-----------------Total: 13.2% (1 in 7.5 times, 6.5:1)These are your standard draws; when you flop a hand with which you can continue, it willmost frequently be one of these. These draws improve to a flush or straight on the riverabout 1 time in 3.
      Summary
      - you have a 5.6% (1 in 18, 17:1 chance) of flopping a good made hand- you have a ~7% (1 in 14, 13:1) chance of flopping a strong (12+ outs) combo draw- you have a ~13% chance (1 in 7.5, 6.5:1) chance of flopping a standard OESD or FDAdding these all together, you will flop a hand you can
      continue
      with on the flop 25% of the time (1 in 4). However, only half of the time will these hands be immediatelyprofitable (i.e. +EV to shove it in); the other half, you'll have your standard old OESD orFD which requires playing some poker.
      So, a question from me to all you math-heads: How do you combine thesepreflop odds with the odds of hitting your hand postflop to figure out theimplied odds required to call with SCs preflop?
      If you don't like numbers, skip the rest of the post; what follows is how I calculatedeverything.
      tl;dr math
      Made hands:I calculated the odds of flopping a straight myself; with 65s, for example, there are fourflops that give you a straight (789, 478, 347, 234). The odds of hitting each of thoseflops are 12/50 * 8/49 * 4/48; multiply that by 4 flops, and you get 1.31%.
      Combo draws
      All examples assume you have 6c5c.OESD + flush draw + pair (20 outs ZOMG):You need a flop of 87(6/5), 7(6/5)4, (6/5)43, with two clubs each.8c 7c 6/5x: 2/50 * 1/49 * 5/48 * 3 = .0255%Multiply by 3 to get odds for all three flops =
      0.07653%
      . Not very high.Gutshot + flush draw + pair (17 outs):You need a flop of 98(6/5), 97(6/5), 8(6/5)4, 7(6/5)3, (6/5)42, (6/5)32 with two clubs.9c 8c 6/5x: 2/50 * 1/49 * 5/48 * 3 = .00255%Multiply by 6 to get odds for all six flops =
      0.153%
      .OESD + flush draw (15 outs):You need a flop of 87x, 74x, or 43x with two clubs; in addition, you can catch ultra-deceptive flops of 973 with two clubs or 842 with two clubs.
      127

      Odds of flopping 87x with two clubs, where x does not complete a flush or straight anddoes not pair your hand:87x: 7c 8c x = 2/50 * 1/49 * 27/48 * 3 = 0.138%7c 8x xc = 1/50 * 3/49 * 10/48 * 6 = 0.153%7x 8c xc = 3/50 * 1/49 * 10/48 * 6 = 0.153%Total = 0.444%Total for all 3 flops = 1.332%973: 9c 7c 3x = 2/50 * 1/49 * 3/48 * 3 = 0.0153%*3 for 9c 7x 3c/9x 7c 3c = 0.0459%*2 for 842 = 0.0918%Total odds of flopping 15-outer:
      1.424%
      Pair + flush draw (14 outs):Two clubs and one of your hole cards:6/50 * 11/49 * 10/48 * 3 = 1.68%Since we already counted pair + FD + OESD and pair + FD + gutshot, subtract 0.07653and 0.153 to get
      1.45%
      Pair + straight draw (13 outs):using 65s, possible flops are 87(6/5), 7(6/5)4, (6/5)438/50 * 4/49 * 5/48 * 3 = 0.408%Multiply by 3 for all three flops = 1.224%Since we already counted pair + FD + OESD, subtract 0.07653 to get
      1.147%
      Gutshot + flush draw (12 outs):You need a flop of 98x, 97x, 84x, 73x, 42x, 32x (where each flop has two clubs).Same calculation as OESD + flush draw; 0.444% per flop * 6 flops =
      2.664%
      So,
      total odds of flopping a combo draw
      = 0.07653% (20 outs) + 0.153% (17 outs)+ 1.424% (15 outs) + 1.45% (14 outs) + 1.147% (13 outs) + 2.664% (12 outs) =
      6.915%
      = 1 in 14 times (13:1)
      Regular draws
      OESD (8 outs):There are five flops you can catch an OESD with: using 65s as an example, there's 87x,74x, 43x, 973, and 842.Odds of flopping 87x (where x does not pair your hand and does not complete astraight):8/50 * 4/49 * 34/48 * 3 = 02.94%Subtract 0.442% for the times it makes an OESFD (which we already counted) = 2.498%Multiply by 3 for the odds of 87x/74x/43x: 7.494%Odds of flopping 973: 12/50 * 8/49 * 4/48 = 0.33%Multiply by 2 for the odds of 973/842: 0.65%Subtract 0.0918 since we already counted double gutshot + FD: = 0.558%
      128
    • hvard92
      hvard92
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2012 Posts: 789
      Hello mkjmkjmkj.

      I am just a beginner (played for 10 months) so you have to expect some
      dumb questions from me.

      As you said:
      U flop a full house or quads or straight etc 1 in 18 times and then
      u flop a set 1 in 9 times. And then we have a rule for calling with
      a set, the call20 rule. What if we double the call20 rule concept to call40 rule when we play suited connectors since floping
      a straight, full house etc is twice as unlikely that we flop a set?
      9+9=1:18=call40 rule=P
      Would it be profitable to call with suited connectors then?

      Now you can laugh:P
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