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[NL20-NL50] NL50 77 set 3bet pot

    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Reproduzir mão

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 7, 7.
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.12, SB folds, BB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.38.

      Flop: ($7.25) J, 9, 7 (2 players)
      BB bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00.

      Turn: ($17.25) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $11.00, Hero calls $11.00.

      River: ($39.25) 2 (1 players)
      BB bets $25.50,

      Villain 1.1k hands
      3bet BB vs steal 16% (82)
      3bet vs open BU 18% (98)
      cbet in 3bet pot 88% (8)
      cbet turn in 3bet pot 2 in 5
      WTSD 20%
      WWSF 49%
      Agg freq F/T/R 48/45/34

      Relevant notes: "-11/12 nl50, vs me, K4s BUbb, 3barrel bluff no equity, big bets J55sQx

      So, I decided to defend PF, I called with the plan of raising or calling any flop. Flop thought that his range had a lot of trash and he could very well multi barrel when I just call flop. Turn I just stick with the plan. River I really debated if it was worth a shove, with the money invested in the pot do you think he can fold KK/AA?
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      He might fold AA and KK but that's not the best hands he could have. I wonder if he is depolarized enough to have 99 here. That said, he could have K2s (K4s = K2s imo for preflop so would put it in his range) A2s, Q2s maybe (J2s, his 3bet is high and is spewy obv), T8 (maybe even offsuit?!).

      With regards to river shove I think it's a must because:
      a) you get value although he has JJ and it sucks sometimes.
      b) balance bluffs vs such a guy. I would probably call twice with QT here and shove river. I wouldn't overdue it.. maybe QTs and KQ with backdoored flush but I would DEFINITELY consider double float and shove river vs his check or vs his bet. You already have the read he barrels air like a monkey. If he is somewhat frustrated he probably calls KK and some hands as low as Jx.

      Constructing a river shoving range is interesting imo. Any thoughts on that? Do you 4bet JJ pre vs him? If not you probably have 3xJJ combos, 3x99 combos, 3x77 combos, 4xT8s combos so 13 value combos. 4 QTs combos and KQs with turned FD looks reasonable but KQs might be better to raise flop with. So you'd be left with 4 bluffs and since the shove wouldn't be big you can't have many more bluffs. What pot odds does he get when you shove? Like 22%? Too bad it's just a minraise. If you think with those odds he never folds a hand I'd probably reconsider adding more than QTs as bluffs. Keep in mind that although those are 4 river bluff combos they had very good equity so they are not bad at all to get to the river with. You could probably just never bluff river but instead bluffcatch a good frequency like never folding a hand like TT or around that value. Hard to really draw the line unless you know if he checks some of his range postflop (whether value or bluff) so you can reassess his barreling range.

      That said I don't like the idea to NEVER fold to a cbet. I mean, yes you can play back often but not 100% of the time. You have other hands to play back on a board like KQ6 and others on a board like 768. You don't ALWAYS have to play back with any hand you have. He selects the hands he cbets imo so you should select the hands you play back with, don't get into his game and just spew money. 77 happens to be a hand you can float quite often imo but I'd still fold in some spots like when it's underpair or even 3rd pair with no other potential to improve apart from a 2 outer with reverse implied odds.
    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Yeah, I didn't consider 2x, but he can definitely have it. And T8 too. I regret not shoving.

      I confess that balance is not on the top of my list at the moment, but I really need to start considering it, NL100 is around the corner.

      In regards to my bluff shoving range river, I didn't give it a thought before. I probably wouldn't call QTs PF, I tend to escape from hand that could be potencially dominated. I could arrive to the river with KQ and 86s but honestly I'm not sure he is bluffing that often river in this spot, but I could be entirely wrong. And I'm really not sure what to do river with a hand like TT ou AJ.

      The idea of never folding flop comes from yourdoompoker videos, a video maker from PokerStrategy. But yeah, flop comes AQTss I probably shouldn't raise this guy with 77...

      Well, I only called and he showed KK.

      Thanks for the great analysis.
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      I remember watching something about it in his videos but he does it initially only and readjusts afterwards. Against someone you already have some hands with you probably should have a better plan already. If he 3bets so often QTs is not that dominated.

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    44.30%  42.93%   1.37% { QTs }
      UTG+1  55.70%  54.34%   1.37% { JJ+, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }

      Sure, somewhat behind but basically a flip in which you have position and it's not the top of your range. Depending on how polarized he is (less QJ, more Q3 type hands) the better you do. That was just a rough estimate but I think you get my point.