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[NL20-NL50] nl20 Monster Draw Misses on River.

    • Ghartman
      Ghartman
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2011 Posts: 273
      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Seat 1 is the button
      Seat 1: Player1 ( €17.13 EUR ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 1.7, Hands: 273
      Seat 2: Player2 ( €26.89 EUR ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 10, 3B: 4, AF: 1.1, Hands: 270
      Seat 3: Hero ( €21.21 EUR ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 10, AF: 2.9, Hands: 5786
      Seat 4: Player4 ( €20.00 EUR ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 13, 3B: 7, AF: 2.0, Hands: 261
      Seat 5: Player5 ( €47.54 EUR ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 20, 3B: 1, AF: 5.4, Hands: 249
      Seat 6: Player6 ( €18.32 EUR ) - VPIP: 36, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 3.4, Hands: 274




      Preflop: Hero is BB with K J
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.60, SB folds, Hero calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.30) T 3 Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.60, Hero raises to $1.80, BTN calls $1.20

      Turn: ($4.90) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

      River: ($10.90) 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks



      Ok, so I had been at the table for a little while and was playing kind of snug. Button looked like a recreational player but not too much info on him. He probably views me as a regular tag, not too out of line and playing pretty straight forward. I had 3bet him a couple of times when he opened from the button and he folded.

      So he raises from the button and I'm happy to take a flop with my hand. I could have raised but I like to mix up calling and raising in these spots. I flop a monster and am happy to play for stacks. I 3x his cbet and he flats, maybe I could have raised to $2.20-$2.50. I lead out on the turn again and he just calls again. I'm putting him on a weak 10x, Qx, maybe a weak flush draw or maybe a stubborn 99, 1010 etc.... My question relates to the river, can I shove here profitably, repping KQ, a set of 3's, Q 10 etc.... or is check fold the best line here? The draws miss and by checking, I kind of turn my hand face up so what do you think? Let me know.


      Thanks
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      First I am gonna say that my default line is to raise bigger on the flop, bet turn and shove river. Your draw is so strong that you are probably value raising the flop. From a game theory perspective you want some bluffs in your range when you shove river and your hand is one of the best to have because of its equity until river. This isn't always the best in practice.

      Let's look at your hand though. Do you think he just calls with all his strong hands vs your flop raise? Do you think he gets it in with the nut flush draw? In many cases you can bluff river profitably just by making opponent fold better draws or draws that picked up a pair on the way. From a simple risk /reward perspective, if he folds enough times regardless of his hand compared to your K high, it's a profitable shove. You basically win close to never if you check. He checks back better and can bluff you as he pleases.

      I don't think he thought about exploiting that you never check/call river here but you should consider doing it yourself vs some. ;)
    • Ghartman
      Ghartman
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2011 Posts: 273
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      Do you think he just calls with all his strong hands vs your flop raise? Do you think he gets it in with the nut flush draw? In many cases you can bluff river profitably just by making opponent fold better draws or draws that picked up a pair on the way. From a simple risk /reward perspective, if he folds enough times regardless of his hand compared to your K high, it's a profitable shove. You basically win close to never if you check. He checks back better and can bluff you as he pleases.

      Ok, so in your opinion, a shove is the +EV move here to balance out my value shoves basically. In this spot I was pretty readless so is the shove still the go to move or can I check and, if he checks back, I can take a note on what he played like this? To be honest, my finger was twitching over the all in button but I decided against it. :coolface:
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Well, I think you rarely win if you check. You basically give up on a hand that goes well in your river shoving range here. If he can call/call nutflushdraw it sucks for you if you don't shove, same goes for stuff like 65s, 54s, etc. That's what you are trying to make him fold with a shove not Qx. Futhermore, if you know he 3bets flop to get it in with 2pair+ or maybe even KK+ he is now left with Qx as the best hand in his range while you can have 33, QT, TT. Not very wide.. but then your range is these very strong draws (which hit around half of the time by the river KJs, AJs, J9s, 89s) and those value hands.

      The biggest question is how many non Qx hands does he have and how often does he fold them imo.