Am i burning money? (HU SnG)

    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      Ok guys first of all, i am not opening a thread to whine about variance but to ask if on my fairly small sample i can come to a conclusion to how i play.

      I play regularly 6max cash games on nl10 and i am a marginal winner. But i always liked heads up games. So time came, that after six months of grinding on the cash tables, i decided two weeks before to start playing some regular speed HU SnG.

      The game is different by i did some days homework before i start playing and the last two weeks due to my poor results i haven't stop studying.

      Here are my results in chips won, ev line (without coolers counting of course).



      Uploaded with ImageShack.us

      I mean i have experienced everything anyone who plays in high volume has, in the past months . So dealing with variance is not new to me but last 6 days have been really bad.

      I never imagined myself making that kind of a post but how to deal with it? Losing 10 out of 11 flips is gross. My bankroll has suffered big time since i got one tilt day already where i played cash to relax -ouch!!!- (last tilt day that spew on the tables was three months before).

      Are these games really suppose to be like that? Are cash games having less variance?

      I will take a break for some days and i will study more before i will play again but how can i know that i am not burning money here?

      If your answer is though "just continue playing and give us a sample" i will in a week or so (cause i don't feel like playing right now). But at least in the mean time can someone give me ANY advise? Anything about variance, HU SnG , flips-flops anything!

      Thnx in advance.
  • 12 replies
    • maythany
      maythany
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 1,194
      Hello,

      I don't play HU games, but I know that they naturally have higher variance than a full ring and 6 max table. Quite frankly, you play are playing poker at a level that is far above mine, so any other advice from me other than the variance part is futile.

      http://www.liquidpoker.net/news/121389/The_bankroll_management_and_variance_guide

      http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/58/heads-up-nl/theory-amazing-bankroll-variance-post-91876/
    • martoman2k10
      martoman2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.08.2010 Posts: 669
      Originally posted by maythany
      Hello,

      I don't play HU games, but I know that they naturally have higher variance than a full ring and 6 max table. Quite frankly, you play are playing poker at a level that is far above mine, so any other advice from me other than the variance part is futile.

      Not sure if serious.
    • Targetme
      Targetme
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      Looks to me like you ran really good, and now your running really bad and probably think your running worse then you really are. Truth is likely somewhere in the middle you really need to give us more info even then we likely wont know. Your -9% roi but still winning you must be playing some pretty eradice stakes to boot.
    • martoman2k10
      martoman2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.08.2010 Posts: 669
      wait... you're playing Husngs on partypoker?

      that's where you're burning money. Their rake is too high to make it worthwhile playing there (unless you're playing the highest possible stakes). Seriously, just playing on a site with smaller rake(even iPoker qualifies in this case) will boost your winrate.
    • daun666
      daun666
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 540
      Yeah need more info on this, like speed? And how many bis is that under ev, party had 2k starting stack iirc, so its around 15bi? looks standard downswing to me.
      and also yeah, rake on party is very high porb not even worth playing there
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      Thnx for the replies guys.

      wait... you're playing Husngs on partypoker? that's where you're burning money. Their rake is too high to make it worthwhile playing there


      Yeah i have already compared the rake to pokerstars and at the beginning i was really concerned about it. But then i thought that on the 3$ buy-in it can not be that bad since players suppose to be far worse and i do not know if i am any good at it. So the plan was to go to pokerstars after i realized if i was of any worth on this game.

      Yeah need more info on this, like speed? And how many bis is that under ev, party had 2k starting stack iirc, so its around 15bi? looks standard downswing to me. and also yeah, rake on party is very high porb not even worth playing there


      Regspeed , which i think makes matters worst cause i should have more of an edge.
      About the 15buy-in swing i do not know if it is a swing or a trend and that is why i made the post in the first place. If it is a swing then ok, then sun will shine hopefully before i hurt my roll too much.

      Looks to me like you ran really good, and now your running really bad and probably think your running worse then you really are.


      I run below ev right from the start and I did not coolered my opponents as you probably think i did in the first games, .
      I think i ran worse than i really do? Maybe yes , maybe the post was really sentimental yesterday but still do not forget that i am coming from the cash game world, so i am still trying to understand what is going on here.

      Thnx for the links Mythany, interesting stuff.

      I will post news when i got more results but if someone wants to help just advice me of any books (besides collin moshman's, i already have it), articles, threads or anything.
    • martoman2k10
      martoman2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.08.2010 Posts: 669
      Someone mentioned that HU games have the biggest variance - that is simply not true (even hyper Hus included in this) . I've played regspeed and turbo HU and I've not experienced high swings. When you play you either win or lose - half the field gets paids. If you played a normal fullring sng, swings get much nastier. I've ran 50+ BI under EV few times before.

      When it comes to regspeed husngs, if you're working on your game and avoiding sitting regs, 30buy ins should do the job.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      SnG wise yeah 6max hypers and such can be absolutely brutal, but the comparison was between his normal games (NL Cash) and HU SnGs, in which case the comment about HU SnGs being higher variance is entirely true because naturally you're getting it in against players with less equity than you do in 100bb deep cash games.

      I've never played the reg speeds so don't really know about there, i'm going off my experience with Turbos and Hypers.
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Rake is essential in HU sng im my opinion.

      Since in a regular 10 man SNG you need to win once every four times to be profitable.

      That is 20% of the tournaments you play.


      Now in a HU sng where you have a rake of 10% means that you have to win more than 50% to break even.

      In a $3.30 game you need to win 60% of the games to be profitable.

      $3.30x100= $330.00

      $6.00X60 won= $360.00
      ROI= (360-330)/330= 9%

      Now if you get a rakeback of 20% things change slightly. Now you have to win 65.5% of the times in order to maintain the same ROI.

      $3.60x100= $360.00
      $6.00x 66= $396.00
      ROI= 10% (as realistically you cant win 65.5 games)


      Bottom line is that an increased rake does make a difference in your ROI.

      On the same note lets assume that you play with a higher rake but you still win 60% of the times. That would mean that:

      $3.60x100= $360.00
      $6.00x 60= $360.00

      ROI= 0%

      Therefore from a very profitable player you become a break even player just because of the rake. In my opinion you also need very valid grounds in order to claim that the standard of opponents is low enough to justify a rake increase.

      Just my 2 cents.
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      Great post Elchipriota. With your examples you open my eyes to the basic mistakes i was making: I was underestimating both the rake and opposition in a totally new field for me.

      Due to variance, of course, i manage to win only 128 and lose 123 SnGs at 3$
      So i would stand to lose ,with 6% rake like on poker stars instead of 10% on partypoker only 32$ instead of 61,80$.

      Because prizes would have been (5,64$ x 128) 721 - investment of 753 = -32$. And that's only on 251 games on 3$ where the loss due to the rake only, is nearly DOUBLE.

      SnG wise yeah 6max hypers and such can be absolutely brutal, but the comparison was between his normal games (NL Cash) and HU SnGs, in which case the comment about HU SnGs being higher variance is entirely true because naturally you're getting it in against players with less equity than you do in 100bb deep cash games.


      I didn't think of variance being greater than cash games if i knew such thing i would have been prepared to deal with it.

      So... I lost 30,80$ to the rake cause i did not chose the right site
      +40$ on the day i tilted playing HuSnGs and i started playing fast forward for the second time in my life. (Seriously, I had no clue that two pairs on Fast Forward are almost always worse than Top pair medium kicker in a normal cash game.)
      + at least 150$ for the time playing (not to mention studying) i spend away from my profitable cash games for two weeks.

      Bottom line is that negative variance was the least of my problems yet the one i was noticing more.

      My worst investment ever!

      I now think that i should spent more time in the forum reading posts and asking you guys before i make any new investment.

      I thank you all for your replies.
    • martoman2k10
      martoman2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.08.2010 Posts: 669
      Hm when it comes to Husng and Don games the rake and Roi works quite simple actually.

      Say you have rake of 10 percent. Your break even point is the 10 percent/2+50 = 55%.
      rake 5%. BE = 5/2+50 = 52.5%

      etc

      This chart below is for dons but that's basically the same as HU games as 1/2 of field gets paid.

    • zilltine
      zilltine
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.03.2010 Posts: 395
      http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/185/heads-up-sng/husng-structures-buyin-info-popular-poker-rooms-1186741/