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[NL20-NL50] SH25 FF 3bet pot barrel 0 equity

    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,020
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $50.26
      Hero (SB): $26.34
      BB: $43.07
      UTG: $10.79
      MP: $26.45
      CO: $64.51

      Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has J:spade: T:club:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, fold, BTN calls $1.75

      Flop: ($5.25, 2 players) A:spade: 2:diamond: 7:heart:
      Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

      Turn: ($10.25, 2 players) 4:club:
      Hero bets $5.00, ...

      villain is an unknown reg, no relevant info at all.

      thoughts on preflop and barreling/sizings?
      what is your "default" on these boards? i think it's okay (as in "profitable") to fire twice with nothing and give up the river but would like some thoughts.

      do you think size matters (a lot)? :f_biggrin:
  • 1 reply
    • Keyser1
      Joined: 19.11.2012 Posts: 14
      Hi Tomaloc,
      I wouldn't recommend double barreling here. The profitability of any bet in poker is simply pot equity+fold equity=$. When your pot equity increases, your fold equity can decrease while the bet remains profitable. Here, if your turn barrel is called, I think it's safe to assume that you have almost zero equity (almost because villain will have 88-99, 7x some percent), so you're relying almost entirely on villain folding for this bet to be profitable.

      On certain occasions it is correct to bet even with zero equity (a prime example being a turn ace or king that is a scare card to villain's range) but I don't think this is one of those times. If you had a huge database and you filtered for times when you 3bet and cbet an A72r or similarly dry Axx board you would find that you get a very high cbet success percent. Your cbet success percent would be high because people fold these boards frequently when they don't connect. When they don't fold, that means they're likely to have connected.

      Sure, sometimes people do float these boards with air knowing that you're cbetting it 100%, but without any reads to suggest that's the case I think villain is too likely to have Ax for your turn barrel to be profitable.

      As an overall approach to barreling, simply betting with equity or on perfect scare cards is likely to be more profitable long-term than trying to make people fold on non-scare cards equity-less.