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[NL2-NL10] AKs – Missed Flop | Donk by Tight Opponent

    • Raknyo
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 125.8 BB
      SB: 95.6 BB
      BB: 100 BB (VP 15 / PR 15 / Hands 21)
      UTG: 262.2 BB
      MP: 100.4 BB
      CO: 86.2 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A:club: K:club:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 3:spade: 9:heart: 5:spade:
      BB bets 3 BB, Hero?

      Well a tight player donking could be a trap, but my stats on him are rather limited. So he is either weak, 9x or very strong 33, 55, 99, overcards + flush draw.

      If I raise, I'd have to make it at least 12BB which means I have to win the pot around 60% of the time to break even. I have outs to A and K but some of these could be discounted (how would you discount them?) so I'm technically semi-bluffing.

      I could call, but then I'm in a really ugly spot on most turns.

      This is a marginal situation, as I am trying to keep myself from these situations until I have mastered TAG strategy as well as gained more knowledge and confidence, I will just fold in this spot next time but I'm curious to know what you would do.
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Preflop of course raising is fine.

      We don't have much hands on villain so we can consider him as a unknown.
      Basically these donks could mean anything - from complete air to the nuts so it is hard to figure out what's the best play.
      When I do get in those spots I do remember one of the advices I was given when I started and it was "when you are not sure what to do just fold".

      Here I think we can apply this advice since we don't have any information and folding is the safest.
      If we do raise we are practically bluffing (or semi bluffing but as you said our outs aren't "clear") so we could hit an ace or a king and still not make the best hand.
      Calling is the worst option in my opinion because we can't win the pot right here, also we don't really know how to continue on the turn, also we don't have any backdoors.

      So in my opinion folding>raising>>calling.