PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 125.8 BB
SB: 95.6 BB
BB: 100 BB (VP 15 / PR 15 / Hands 21)
UTG: 262.2 BB
MP: 100.4 BB
CO: 86.2 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A

K
fold,
fold,
fold,
Hero raises to 3 BB,
fold, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 3

9

5
BB bets 3 BB, Hero?
Flop:
Well a tight player donking could be a trap, but my stats on him are rather limited. So he is either weak, 9x or very strong 33, 55, 99, overcards + flush draw.
If I raise, I'd have to make it at least 12BB which means I have to win the pot around 60% of the time to break even. I have outs to A and K but some of these could be discounted (how would you discount them?) so I'm technically semi-bluffing.
I could call, but then I'm in a really ugly spot on most turns.
This is a marginal situation, as I am trying to keep myself from these situations until I have mastered TAG strategy as well as gained more knowledge and confidence, I will just fold in this spot next time but I'm curious to know what you would do.