[NL2-NL10] nl fr AQ

    • tofu22
      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 659
      Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

      BB: $16.31 (65.2 bb)
      UTG+1: $8.71 (34.8 bb)
      UTG+2: $15.79 (63.2 bb)
      MP1: $18.80 (75.2 bb)
      MP2: $20.13 (80.5 bb)
      MP3: $10.70 (42.8 bb)
      CO: $40.72 (162.9 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $25.43 (101.7 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A Q
      3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.62, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, SB calls $0.52, BB calls $0.37

      Flop: ($3.10) 7 K J (5 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets $2.17, CO folds, Hero calls $2.17, 2 folds

      Turn: ($7.44) K (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero bets $4.50, MP2 calls $4.50

      River: ($16.44) 8 (2 players)
      MP2 bets $12.84 and is all-in, Hero calls $12.84

      is the river a clear fold? i had to call. villain 16/12/0 2 af/76 hands
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Preflop: We can also 3-bet preflop to attack the dead money in the pot (as a bluff).
      If CO is a fish I would 3-bet every time to isolate him.

      Flop: With these many people in the pot I feel that MP2s range is strong so we don't have much FE by raising. Plus we can keep other people in the pot to increase our implied odds so calling is my favorite line.

      Turn: Once he checks I like our bet as we can get value from Kx (AK/KQ and Aa). He can slowplay 77, JJ, KK though.

      River: I can see him shoving 77, JJ, KK for value (total of 7 combos but he may not always play ck/call on turn).

      If we can't see him shoving AK/KQ or worse flushes (of which there aren't many or any combinations in his range) then we have to fold.

      Personally I would lean towards a fold because I can't see anything that we beat when he shoves. It's an ugly spot because we have a strong hand but villain so far has been a nit. And pot odds on the river are about 30% which means he needs to bluff/bet worse 3 out of 10 times.

      In the heat of the moment though I think it would be tempting to call there, but realisticly talking can we find 4 hands out of every 10 that we beat?
    • tofu22
      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 659
      great analysis thx very much!