[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - AJ vs fishy guy

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hey,

      At the time I had a bit smaller sample and didn't had a good idea of his MP openingsrange.

      Is preflop standard? I think vs a reg this won't be good but fish fish it probably is :)

      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2009481
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $42.12 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 41
      BTN: $27.10 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 4.8, Hands: 5290
      Hero (SB): $25.13 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 3.6, Hands: 535581
      BB: $25.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 4.5, Hands: 121
      UTG: $17.43 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 18, 3B: 0, AF: 1.6, Hands: 101

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with J :heart: A :spade:
      UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.75) 8 :spade: A :heart: J :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $1.00, Hero raises to $3.25, UTG folds

      Final Pot: $3.75
      Hero wins $3.58
      (Rake: $0.17)
  • 14 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      you have to know, what kind of fish he is? what is he opening? how are you going to exploit him?

      the fact that he is a fish and you know it doesn't automatically entitle you to the monies, you know
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Allright :P

      I didn't know hehe. Was just thinking that I dominate most of his range :(
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      18% overall seems somewhat reasonable

      i think i call on btn and fold on sb/bb without further info, position too strong
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      18% overall seems somewhat reasonable

      i think i call on btn and fold on sb
      Folding AJ vs fishy open seems sick...

      But I have seen a bit too much HSP...;)
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      made a little edit :D

      problem is just that i don't see how to play this profitably oop, it's fish but he is clearly not crazy and he's still utg after all
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Learn to flop 2 pairs mate :coolface:

      Btw, he's in MP ;)
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      Might 3b from blinds tho if he got a high f3b, we got some sweetblockers if we have AJ AT.


      Back to the hand!

      22+, A6s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KJo+, QJo if this is his Open raise range from utg we got 52.18% EQ vs his hole range!! We got lots of his hands dominated he might overplay etc etc.

      So i love the play if he is in reality this loose!
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      bump for great justice
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think it's fine. Given that you are in SB, I don't want BB to come along. I wouldn't mind a "3-bet to see where you are at", cos this fishy guy doesn't 4bet light and can call with so many worse hands.

      Assuming he has a 20% opening range here,

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 44.99% 41.85% 3.14% 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
      MP3 55.01% 51.87% 3.14% AJo

      We are slight favourite here so I wouldn't mind making a really small 3bet to keep his entire opening range in the hand. So you can just make it 1.50 or 1.70 and I think he never folds anything.

      I am often a huge critic of the raise to see where you are at play. But I like it vs fish, simply because we can make very good educated guesses about the fish's tendencies even without too many reads (not folding much to 3bets, rarely 4bets)

      And if he plays really weakly postflop (high FTCbet for example), then having the initiative makes it even more +EV for you.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      I have problems with your advise coaches. It might be a swing but I'm not sure.

      When I read that it's good to 3bet fish even IP with hands like KJo for value I'm losing a lot. I think it's because I find it hard to play postflop ones I miss -> this happens most of the time. Howmany times do we barrel? Just ones won't show a profit vs fish but barreling multiple streets is also spew :(

      Bit lost atm, low confidence
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      You are not looking at the right stats I think.
      Fold to 3bet, Fold to Flop cbet.

      If he folds very rarely to 3bets (<50%) and folds to cbets 45% or more, I think we can just isoraise him with a fairly wide range and then cbet on good flops, while giving up on bad flops.

      Another thing about 3betting light for value - You must look at his opening range. If he opens 15% only, then 3betting KJo for value is just bad. If he opens 50% and calls with 60% of his range, then I think you could go for thin value with KJo.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 49.07% 47.07% 2.00% KJo
      MP3 50.93% 48.93% 2.00% 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo

      You are actually a slight dog vs a 30% range (0.6 X 50%), but I think having initiative (provided he doesn't float flop very wide) seems sufficient to compensate for only having 49% equity.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      About losing money when you miss. Unless you think you are getting outplayed very often, I just don't see how you could lose money with the initiative.

      You flop a pair 35% of the time on average. So does your opponent. In instances where both of you miss, you should win the pot much more often.

      Chances of you hitting = 0.35
      Chances of your opponent hitting = 0.35
      Chances of both of you hitting at the same time = 0.35 ^ 2 = 0.1225
      Chances of both of you missing = 1 - (0.1225 + 0.35) = 0.4275

      As you can see, both of you will miss approximately 30-42% of the time (35% refers to flopping pairs, but he can flop draws or overcards too).

      With overcards yourself, you could always improve to the best hand. If both of you miss and you bet, you should take down the pot really often.

      So no matter what, I think having the initiative is a really huge advantage against weak opponents.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Thanks mblm :)
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      Hi,

      Not a big fan of calling, 3betting and folding are probably both ok (for reasons already mentioned). As played flop is pretty standard.

      ifs