[NL2-NL10] 66 – Flopped Set on Draw Heavy Board, Turn Pairs Board, River Completes Flush OOP vs Unknown

    • Raknyo
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 104.2 BB
      Hero (SB): 111.4 BB
      BB: 141 BB
      UTG: 100.4 BB
      MP: 372 BB
      CO: 86.4 BB

      Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 6:diamond: 6:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, BB calls 3 BB

      Flop: ($0.40, 2 players) 7:club: 6:club: Q:club:
      Hero bets 6 BB, BB calls 6 BB

      Turn: ($1.00, 2 players) Q:heart:
      Hero bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

      River: ($1.90, 2 players) A:club:
      Hero bets 9 BB, BB raises to 44 BB, Hero raises to 92.4 BB and is all-in, BB calls 48.4 BB

      PF: Standard bet for protection since have best hand on average here.

      Can expect most players to at least call with mostly broadway hands, most if not all medium or lower pocket pairs and possibly some other cards such as high suited cards or suited connectors.

      Since he doesn't raise then can assume he is less likely to have TT+, AQ but still can't rule them out there range.

      F: Hero flops a strong hand but the board is very draw-heavy with numerous straight draws, flush draws and combo-draws. Therefore, he chooses to protect his hand strongly with a bet of ¾ pot, gaining value from draws as well as Qx hands.

      The only hands currently beating Hero are QQ, 77 and flopped straight. Hero assumes that the player would most likely bet QQ either here or pre-flop so assumes he won't have this often. He also assumes he would bet 77 as well as any J or worse flush flopped flush in order to protect against a higher flush. Therefore Hero is only really worried about KcXc or better and these will occur less than often than Qx or worse holdings.

      T: Interestingly, the board pairs so Hero believes he now has the best hand often enough to go for maximum value. In order to still build the pot, by getting value from flush draws as well as to hope for a 2-bet from Qx hands so he can 3-bet to get as much value before the river completes a possible flush and Hero loses value due to villain fearing the flush. Hero bets half pot because doesn't have to protect his hand since he now has a full-house.

      Since villain calls, he is most likely on a flush draw or has a weak Q.

      R: The flush completes so Hero bets small in order to look like a block-bet to lure a flush or trip Qs to raise him. Thou asks and thou receives, so Hero ships it to gain as much value from weaker hands.
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Preflop we have an easy raise here of course and we could also make it 3bb.

      You could go even for bigger bets on those flops, since you are hardly ever bluffing => you have a strong range => you want more money in the pot.
      So in this case you could even go for 7-8bb.

      I don't like betting half pot on the turn.
      I'd make it 3/4 since Qx isn't really raising here, and also FD's are likely to call too.

      On the river I'd go for something like $1.1.
      When he raises playing for stacks is good.