[NL2-NL10] QQ vs Maniac

    • cgoldie
      cgoldie
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2010 Posts: 73
      80/13 maniac. called a flop with a3 high and tried to bluff the river with a pot sized bet among other wild bluffs.

      Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $9.75 (97.5 bb)
      BB: $16.83 (168.3 bb)
      UTG: $5.12 (51.2 bb)
      MP: $13.55 (135.5 bb)
      CO: $11.80 (118 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $20.37 (203.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
      UTG raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.35) 7 3 2 (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.35, UTG calls $1.35

      Turn: ($4.05) J (2 players)
      UTG bets $3.17 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.17

      River: ($10.39) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $10.39 pot ($0.51 rake)
      Final Board: 7 3 2 J 6
      UTG showed 8 K and won $9.88 ($4.76 net)
      Hero showed Q Q and lost (-$5.12 net)
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      While our read that he can bluff is good the one problem we face is that he can bluff with a weak heart that still beats us and versus which we have 0 equity.

      Considering we need about 30% pot odds he needs to bluff with nothing 3 out of 10 times (just to be around breakeven).

      If he really bluffs any floats than there are more floats with no heart than we can call but either way it's a high variance (short term) play and you will get shown MANY hearts.
    • cgoldie
      cgoldie
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2010 Posts: 73
      It's a tough one because I know he would bluff with air a lot in this spot just not sure if it's 100% but probably atleast 50% bluffing when he has nothing. I also think he may bet his value hearts Q/K/A smaller or even shove the flop with the draw some of the time. Hard one with maniacs =S
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by cgoldie
      It's a tough one because I know he would bluff with air a lot in this spot just not sure if it's 100% but probably atleast 50% bluffing when he has nothing. I also think he may bet his value hearts Q/K/A smaller or even shove the flop with the draw some of the time. Hard one with maniacs =S
      I recommend the following (as a homework/exercise):

      Shove his range in equilab and do the best case scenario. How much equity do we have?

      Then narrow his range down and do the "worst" case scenario (less bluffs, more value, etc.). See how much equity we have.

      As a general rule if we are barely break even/ahead in the best case scenario and we are far behind in the worst case it's not a good spot (definitely high variance short term).
    • cgoldie
      cgoldie
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2010 Posts: 73
      Is it possible to do specific suits in equilab so I can add more value hands? I did vs random which is the potential best case and got:

      Board: 7h3h2hJh
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 29.99% 26.70% 3.29% { random }
      BU 70.01% 66.72% 3.29% { QQ }
    • cgoldie
      cgoldie
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2010 Posts: 73
      Figured it out. Absolute worst case if he decided to only shove value hands and disclude anything he definetly 4bets pre:

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 7h3h2hJh
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 72.58% 72.58% 0.00% { KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, Ah7h, Kh7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, Th7h, Ah6h, Kh6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, Th6h, Ah5h, Kh5h, Qh5h, Jh5h, Th5h, Ah4h, Kh4h, Qh4h, Jh4h, Th4h, Ah3h, Kh3h, Qh3h, Jh3h, Th3h, Ah2h, Kh2h, Qh2h, Jh2h, Th2h, AdJh, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AsJh, AcJh, AdTh, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AcTh, Ad9h, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah9c, As9h, Ac9h, Ad8h, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah8c, As8h, Ac8h, Ad7h, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah7c, As7h, Ac7h, Ad6h, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah6c, As6h, Ac6h, Ad5h, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah5c, As5h, Ac5h, Ad4h, Ah4d, Ah4s, Ah4c, As4h, Ac4h, Ad3h, Ah3d, Ah3s, Ah3c, As3h, Ac3h, Ad2h, Ah2d, Ah2s, Ah2c, As2h, Ac2h, KdQh, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KcQh, KdJh, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KsJh, KcJh, KdTh, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KcTh, Kd9h, Kh9d, Kh9s, Kh9c, Ks9h, Kc9h, Kd8h, Kh8d, Kh8s, Kh8c, Ks8h, Kc8h, Kd7h, Kh7d, Kh7s, Kh7c, Ks7h, Kc7h, Kd6h, Kh6d, Kh6s, Kh6c, Ks6h, Kc6h, Kd5h, Kh5d, Kh5s, Kh5c, Ks5h, Kc5h, Kd4h, Kh4d, Kh4s, Kh4c, Ks4h, Kc4h, Kd3h, Kh3d, Kh3s, Kh3c, Ks3h, Kc3h, Kd2h, Kh2d, Kh2s, Kh2c, Ks2h, Kc2h, QdJh, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QcJh, QdTh, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QsTh, QcTh, Qd9h, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qh9c, Qs9h, Qc9h, Qd8h, Qh8d, Qh8s, Qh8c, Qs8h, Qc8h, Qd7h, Qh7d, Qh7s, Qh7c, Qs7h, Qc7h, Qd6h, Qh6d, Qh6s, Qh6c, Qs6h, Qc6h, Qd5h, Qh5d, Qh5s, Qh5c, Qs5h, Qc5h, Qd4h, Qh4d, Qh4s, Qh4c, Qs4h, Qc4h, Qd3h, Qh3d, Qh3s, Qh3c, Qs3h, Qc3h, Qd2h, Qh2d, Qh2s, Qh2c, Qs2h, Qc2h, JdTh, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JcTh, Jd9h, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9h, Jc9h, Jd8h, Jh8d, Jh8s, Jh8c, Js8h, Jc8h, Jd7h, Jh7d, Jh7s, Jh7c, Js7h, Jc7h, Jd6h, Jh6d, Jh6s, Jh6c, Js6h, Jc6h, Jd5h, Jh5d, Jh5s, Jh5c, Js5h, Jc5h, Jd4h, Jh4d, Jh4s, Jh4c, Js4h, Jc4h, Jd3h, Jh3d, Jh3s, Jh3c, Js3h, Jc3h, Jd2h, Jh2d, Jh2s, Jh2c, Js2h, Jc2h, Td9h, Th9d, Th9s, Th9c, Ts9h, Tc9h, Td8h, Th8d, Th8s, Th8c, Ts8h, Tc8h, Td7h, Th7d, Th7s, Th7c, Ts7h, Tc7h, Td6h, Th6d, Th6s, Th6c, Ts6h, Tc6h, Td5h, Th5d, Th5s, Th5c, Ts5h, Tc5h, Td4h, Th4d, Th4s, Th4c, Ts4h, Tc4h, Td3h, Th3d, Th3s, Th3c, Ts3h, Tc3h, Td2h, Th2d, Th2s, Th2c, Ts2h, Tc2h }
      BU 27.42% 27.42% 0.00% { QQ }