[NL20-NL50] nl25 SH 99 quads

    • DannyJQ
      Joined: 13.07.2011 Posts: 1,507
      $0.12/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      CO: $36.62 (146.5 bb)
      BTN: $29.41 (117.6 bb)
      SB: $27.25 (109 bb)
      BB: $27.30 (109.2 bb)
      UTG: $44.77 (179.1 bb)
      Hero (MP): $38.15 (152.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 9 9
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB raises to $3.12, Hero calls $2.37, CO calls $2.37

      Flop: ($9.48) A Q 9 (3 players)
      BB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50, CO calls $5.50

      Turn: ($25.98) 9 (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      River: ($25.98) 2 (3 players)
      BB bets $10, Hero raises to $29.53, CO folds, BB calls $8.68 and is all-in

      CO is fish playing 42/18 ; 100 hands.
      BB is reg 22/16, squeeze 3.7 ; 1.3k hands.

      I think we have a profitable call here since i expect the fish to call behind almost always.

      Pretty good flop for us, I deicde to just call in order to keep the fish in the hand.

      I decide to check here for 4 reasons:
      1. disguise the strength of my hand
      2. give a chance to the fish behind me to make a bet on the turn
      3. Im expecting the reg to bet the river in a good amount of times when it is checked on the turn
      4. Give my opponents a chance to improve on the river.

      Is my thought process correct or I should just bet the turn?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Flop: Calling is reasonable for sure. Pot is already very big so even if flush hits we can't get away from the hand.

      Turn: I would never check here in single raised pot esp with fish behind. But it may be fine given that you have like 29-30$ left. Maybe you could just put in some really small bet to size stacks for a river jam, like 6-8$.

      Yeah I think betting small seems better. Fish may check back flush draw if we check and if river blanks out like that we lose value. At the same time I think he never folds to a small bet and if he misses he still folds, if he hits he's still jamming. I don't think BB folds AK to a small bet as well, and I think he should be check/folding KK/JJ anyway. Sure sometimes he hits a boat himself and we get to stack him when he checks but I don't think that happens very often.

      To sum up my points, checking is better if we have PSB or <PSB left in stacks but we were deep in this hand. Checking also becomes a better play if fish is aggro fish. In this case I think small bet is better than check.