[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 AKo

    • dannywratten
      dannywratten
      Gold
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      BU 24/20/3.7/14.6/29/232hands
      agro looking reg, 20%FTcbet, FT3b 75% (8)

      Not really sure what to make of his range here.
      Don't know how wide he is calling the 3b IP, but I didn't think he repped all that much with his small raise size.

      At the time I thought he was just abusing the fact that this flop is pretty bad for me & I fold most of my range to his raise.
      I block some FD's & don't think he set mines often or goes crazy with a small overpairs, so I think he is full of it a lot.

      Maybe he raises here with some GS BDFD type hands.
      I still felt like a spewtard afterwards though :D

      Hero (BB): $25.81 (103.2 bb)
      UTG: $33.63 (134.5 bb)
      MP: $35.13 (140.5 bb)
      CO: $28.11 (112.4 bb)
      BTN: $46.75 (187 bb)
      SB: $23.91 (95.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN calls $1.75

      Flop: ($5.10) 8 7 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.60, BTN raises to $6.50, Hero raises to $23.31, BTN folds

      Results:
      $18.10 pot ($0.90 rake)
      Final Board: 8 7 4
      Hero mucked A K and won $17.20 ($8.20 net)
      BTN mucked and lost (-$9 net)
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I prefer to bet/fold without reads. Actually your actual hand is pretty good for a checkraise bluff. It's easy to play, just shove all A/K/hearts on the Turn if he does call your c/r.

      I think he can very easily raise various flush draws here (sure you are a favourite with 50+%) so that is fine. But more importantly if he raises something like TT or 99 we are crushed.

      How often would he have sets here? I don't know, he could have 77/88/78s very often but probably not 44 so often.

      There's already $14 in the pot. I gave him a reasonable range of 2 pairs, sets, straights, 3 combos of 99, and a couple of flush draws.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 18.85% 18.37% 0.48% AhKs
      MP3 81.15% 80.67% 0.48% 88-77, 9d9h, 9h9s, 9h9c, 87s, 65s, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 7h6h

      If he folds, we win $14 (a pretty large pot)
      If he calls, we put $20.70 more and get back 19% X 52$ = ~$10 so we lose 10.70 on average

      you can form an equation yourself and solve for x (let x be fold equity etc) but I think you probably need him to bluff 40% here. Who knows? Could be spew or not but I prefer not to without reads.
    • dannywratten
      dannywratten
      Gold
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      Hey thanks! Do you c/r these boards often with overpairs/flushdrawss etc?

      Re: forming my own equation, do you think you could help me out? I'm hopeless at the game theory side of things, so if you could go through it with me that would be great :)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I do c/r such boards with OPs/Flushdraws sometimes, esp when I expect my opponent to bet when checked to really often.

      If he folds, we win $14 (a pretty large pot)
      If he calls, we put $20.70 more and get back 19% X 52$ = ~$10 so we lose 10.70 on average

      Let x be fold equity

      14x = (1-x)10
      14x = 10 - 10x
      24x = 10
      x = 10/24 = ~41%

      If he folds 41% of the time or more, our shove here is good