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[NL20-NL50] SH25 FF QQ vs openshoves 125bb

    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,015
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $27.28
      SB: $31.77
      Hero (BB): $41.62
      UTG: $25.00
      MP: $13.37
      CO: $25.10

      SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q:heart: Q:diamond:

      fold, MP raises to $13.37 and is all-in, fold, fold, SB raises to $31.77 and is all-in, Hero...?

      mp is a random fish, sb is a reg running quite laggy over a 50 hand "sample", even though that shouldn't really matter too much.
      timing: not SNAP, but not too slow either

      snap call or sigh? what is the worst that we call here?

      bonus questions:

      - if sb folded, what are we calling against the 50bb fish given that we close the action?
      - how to proceed on sb spot, how much do we tighten up and do we call or shove our entire continuing range? if calling, do we ever call/fold?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I think JJ is an easy fold. We probably crush MP's range so I don't care about it too much.. More importantly we need to analyze SB's range.

      Q1) Let's ask ourselves what we are actually going to be calling here in SB's shoes. I think I would call AK and TT+, certainly a reasonable calling range from a LAG. This is my standard calling range. And I could adjust it by adding 99/AQ (but not too much wider) if he proves to be really loose.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 47.63% 46.25% 1.38% TT+, AKs, AKo
      MP3 52.37% 50.99% 1.38% QQ

      There you have it. Assuming we also win more money with fish in pot since I make the assumption that we are a fav vs him, I think we should call QQ here.

      I think the stack size is not too relevant for SB since we are only 125BB deep and he is mostly shoving for isolation purposes (well it doesn't really make sense for you to call a 50BB push though, you would probably push over).

      You also need to know how loose the fish is. If he's loose and aggro then that would widen SB's range which would make this an even easier call.

      And I think when MP pushes like that, we should discount AA and KK from his range. So that makes his range more weighted towards AK/AQ/midpairs. Which would make SB shove wider. Which would make QQ even stronger here.

      Q2) Just Shove. We are committed no matter what.

      *Even if he's slightly tighter with JJ+/AK,

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 52.63% 51.05% 1.58% JJ+, AKs, AKo
      MP3 47.37% 45.79% 1.58% QQ

      We are not a huge dog. Add some extra dead money from the fish and you have a neutral EV call here (or maybe slightly +EV/-EV)