[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - AQ: TPTK river 3bet pot

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,131
      Hero was playing 19/10/1.3
      33% steal bu
      70 hands

      BU 25/23/4.3
      69% fold bb vs steal
      27% resteal vs bu
      58% fold vs 4bet
      94% cbet in 3bet pot flop
      78% fold cbet vs raise in 3bet pot (8)
      53% turn..
      3/4 river..
      15% agg% river
      50% wwsf
      3.4k hands

      CO: $11.70 (46.8 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $25.88 (103.5 bb)
      SB: $25.80 (103.2 bb)
      BB: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
      MP: $25 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q:heart: A:spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.65, SB folds, BB raises to $2.05, Hero calls $1.40

      Flop: ($4.20) 2:heart: 4:heart: Q:spade: (2 players)
      BB bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

      Turn: ($8.70) 4:diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $5.78, Hero calls $5.78

      River: ($20.26) 4:spade: (2 players)
      BB bets $15.27 and is all-in, Hero ?

      Hero represents 55-JJ and some flush draws with A that he might want to force the hero to fold, but i also represent very well KQ and AQ. Overall he is very agressive, but the low agg% river worried me :evil:
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I typically 4bet AQ, but that's because I 4bet bluff a lot. And you should be 4betting >10% range in BU vs his BB because he is getting so out of line with 27% resteal. Then again your stats are nitty so I think his actual restealing range vs u should be significantly tighter.

      So without the right dynamic, 4bet/folding seems like a waste, and 4bet/calling is too optimistic if he doesn't shove stuff like AXs or AJ or KQ or small pocket pairs.

      TPTK in 3b pot is like the nuts here. You chop really often, and he occasionally has KK/AA. Given his aggression levels, I won't be surprised to see some 3barrels with AK or busted heart draws.

      Pot odds on River: 15/50 = 30%
      That's really great odds. Even if he never bluffs...

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 69.57% 39.13% 30.43% KK+, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo
      MP3 30.43% 0.00% 30.43% AQs, AQo

      Very easy call here. You chop so much more often than you lose to KK+
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by mbml

      Very easy call here.