[NL20-NL50] NL50 QQ river

    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Reproduzir mão

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, Q.
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds.

      Flop: ($3.5) K, K, 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50.

      Turn: ($8.5) 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, SB calls $5.50.

      River: ($19.5) 5 (1 players)
      SB checks,

      Villain 1.1k hands
      call open SB 12%
      fold to cbet flop 38%
      fold to cbet turn 0% (14)
      WTSD 29%

      Do you guys see value in value betting river?
  • 2 replies
    • Saren113
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,973
      If he will call 77+ it's a clear value bet or ace high. He seems like a station so would value bet river aswell ,kind of biggish.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hmm this is somewhat interesting;

      Preflop: You should look at his SB call open %, but I'm going to make an educated guess about his range here given his VPIP/PFR. Pocketpairs and KQ/AJ/AQ.

      Flop: I don't mind a check here since this is pretty much Way Ahead Way behind spot. But it makes our hand transparent. If you think he's good enough to play perfectly against you when you make your hand face up, then bet the Flop (and I would just half pot with my entire range so i can bluff more cheaply).

      Turn: I don't think you should bet this turn. Maybe a turn which brings multiple draws, like if the board is KK9 and turn is an 8, then there are many more straight and flush draws. This would make villain call lighter.

      I don't really think villain has too many 6X hands given that he's tight and called from SB, but I could be wrong. You may be overrepping your hand though.

      River: Value betting River seems thin.
      There are a few things going for you though
      -I think his range is mostly 77-JJ here
      -You have 2 Qs which block KQ. I don't think he really has KJs and AK so he has very few combos of KX
      -He's tight so he hardly has 6X.

      If positions were slightly different I think this would be very clear check back. But for reasons mentioned above, PERHAPS we could find a thin value bet. Bet a size which gets you called by 77-JJ (probably 25-35% pot). Betting 3 streets with a larger sizing is not optimal because it is really hard for him to call, unless you bluff 3barrel here really often and he knows it.