[NL2-NL10] NL5 Zoom Q8s BvB (Value raise sizing)?

    • cheekopeh
      Joined: 27.09.2010 Posts: 461
      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $5.74 (114.8 bb)
      SB: $5.47 (109.4 bb)
      Hero (BB): $6.06 (121.2 bb)
      UTG: $6.66 (133.2 bb)
      MP: $5.96 (119.2 bb)
      CO: $5.98 (119.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 Q
      4 folds, SB raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.07

      Flop: ($0.24) T K 7 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.14, Hero calls $0.14

      Turn: ($0.52) 8 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.35, SB calls $0.35

      River: ($1.22) 6 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.82, Hero raises to $2.90, SB calls $2.08

      $7.02 pot ($0.29 rake)
      Final Board: T K 7 8 6
      SB mucked 7 9 and lost (-$3.51 net)
      Hero showed 8 Q and won $6.73 ($3.22 net)

      Villain is unknown.

      PF: I def because Sb raises 2.5x which gives me good odds and I can play IP to control the size of the pot. But not sure if Q8s is a good hand to do so?

      Flop: I know I don't have the right odds to draw to a flush, but to call PF and then fold to just a little <1/2 pot bet to me is just a waste of money? Moreover, as I'm playing IP I feel I can extract value easier if I do hit my flush.

      Turn: I assume I'm still behind, but I bet because a) My equity increases with the turn card. b) I believe I have fold equity against Villain (which obv I was wrong), c) I can go for free showdown if I brick my river.

      River: Villain's bet looks really strong, only hands I put him on that might bet was a flush or 9x which hit a straight. Don't think he will slowplay a set or 2p when I bet on Turn. Raised around 3.5x which I believed he will call because of such a strong donk bet by him.

      Is there any more value in raising more or even all in? Is it player dependent?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588

      Preflop: We can call or 3-bet bluff. With the odds that we get calling is fine.

      Flop: We can play call here because we are IP and can take the pot away from him on the turn anyway plus we have some decent equity.

      Raising is fine if villain is more fit/fold and he would fold hands like Tx, Kx, etc.

      Turn: We shouldn't necessarily assume we are still behind although we do have Q high. Villain could have easily bluffed the flop and now we can semi-bluff to get him to fold weak 7x, pockets, A high, etc.

      Once he calls usually his hand is weak and/or a draw (and I think he would bet the nut flush more of then than not).

      River: 9x gets a straight, and the flush hits. We have the second nuts so we can definitely consider raising for value.

      And yes it would be player dependent. Based on his line on the river I can see him having 9x, and since he raised in a steal spot preflop he can have 99, T9, K9, 79, 89, A9. For flushes let's count some NFD but also 54,43, 89, 9T, TJ, TQ, etc.

      So we beat overall a lot more than what beats us.

      On the river we still have $4.86 to put in. Considering this is 5nl we may be able to get away with shoving and getting called by worse. I can't see a worse flush folding but a 9 may fold. So my first thought would be to shove (it may also look bluffier).
    • cheekopeh
      Joined: 27.09.2010 Posts: 461
      Hi Coach,

      Looking at his hand now, we were ahead when on turn against his pair of 77s. So I agree at these stakes, opp can virtually have 3rd pair (w draws) or even worse when they decide to continue w their hands.