[NL2-NL10] NL5 Zoom AQo FH (value raise sizing)?

    • cheekopeh
      cheekopeh
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2010 Posts: 461
      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $5.07 (101.4 bb)
      SB: $5.32 (106.4 bb)
      BB: $8.72 (174.4 bb)
      UTG: $19.77 (395.4 bb)
      Hero (MP): $11.67 (233.4 bb)
      CO: $5 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with Q A
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 3 folds, BB calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.32) 6 3 A (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.24, BB calls $0.24

      Turn: ($0.80) Q (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.55, BB calls $0.55

      River: ($1.90) Q (2 players)
      BB bets $0.70, Hero raises to $1.75, BB calls $1.05

      Results:
      $5.40 pot ($0.22 rake)
      Final Board: 6 3 A Q Q
      BB mucked J 7 and lost (-$2.69 net)
      Hero showed Q A and won $5.18 ($2.49 net)


      Flop: I value bet against PPs, weaker Ax and FD.

      Turn: Against his range, I did not want to bet so big, not <60c because his Ax and smaller PPs would be afraid of the Q. If he has a flush now, I also do not want to value town myself. In fact, I think maybe even 45c would be better? Any advice?

      River: When he puts out the blocker bet, it just feels to me that he has Ax which want to go to showdown cheap. At first, I had my raise button to $3, but slide it back down to $1.75 :facepalm: .. I thought he had Ax and would crying call my small raise.

      Here, I learn that whatever decision I make (bet, raise etc), I should do it base on the range I assign to him and not just a certain "portion" of hands. Am I right to say that? By the river, I think his range is left w Ax hands and Flushes. So against this range, what would you suggest is a good raise size?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Flop: looks good.

      Turn: We can still valuebet versus Ad, worse 2p, etc. I don't want to bet too small so I don't induce a bluff and also lose value. So I think between 1/2-2/3 pot it is fine. Enough worse can still call. I wouldn't bet more than 2/3.

      River: Once he donks into us he may be block betting an Ax, betting a slowplayed flush or even a Qx/worse boats (although I can't see many in his range). Since we have the nuts I want to raise here.

      Let's look at what you said:

      "Here, I learn that whatever decision I make (bet, raise etc), I should do it base on the range I assign to him and not just a certain "portion" of hands. Am I right to say that? By the river, I think his range is left w Ax hands and Flushes. So against this range, what would you suggest is a good raise size? "

      yes, always do it based on his range.

      What range do you think is more likely? What's the max value you can get from either?

      For example, what do you think Ax would pay and what do you think a flush would pay? What % of hands do Ax make versus flushes.

      Considering we are deep and we still have a good 7.78 behind the bet we make is important.

      So let's look at an example.

      Let's assume we think that Ax may pay a $1 raise like here.
      Let's assume a flush would pay $7.08 (a shove).
      And let's assume that he has 50% Ax and 50% flushes.

      Then if I shove I win 7.08 half the time.
      If I bet $1 I win $1 every time.

      Which is better? Clearly the shove since it still makes me $3.54 every time versus the $1

      So now that you see the way this works can you repeat this exercise for this hand?

      Good luck and don't forget I'm here to help :)
    • cheekopeh
      cheekopeh
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2010 Posts: 461
      Hi Coach,

      I get what you mean. Clearly shoving or even raising to $3.50 is definitely more +EV than raising only to $1.75.

      Regarding the exercise,

      a) I think his range on River can be A2s-AJs, A5o-AJo, T9d-65d and Flushes w a broadway card. I don't know anything about combos but in this case I THINK Ax hands make up 60% while Flushes make up 40% of the entire range?? I can be very wide off the mark here I'm not sure. Lol.

      b) We assume Ax hands will call max $1 raise. For flushes, we assume they call any amount, so obv we will shove $7.08

      c) On the raising size, I can raise anywhere between ($0.70-$7.08). If he calls my $1 raise 100% of the time, I make $1 in this hand. If I shove $7.08, he will call 40% of the time because he will fold 60% of his range which are Ax hands and call 40% of his range which are flushes. Which means I make 0.4 x $7.08 = $2.832/hand

      d) In summary, raise $1 win everytime vs shove $7.08 win 40% of the time = $1 vs $2.832 which means shoving is still the best!

      I hope I'm right! Thanks Coach :tongue: