[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 AA deep

    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,309
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      MP: $64.97 (129.9 bb)
      CO: $124.01 (248 bb)
      BTN: $24.64 (49.3 bb)
      Hero (SB): $140.61 (281.2 bb)
      BB: $45 (90 bb)
      UTG: $37.89 (75.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
      2 folds, CO raises to $1.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $6.50, BB folds, CO calls $5

      Flop: ($13.50) T 2 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6, CO calls $6

      Turn: ($25.50) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $12.50, CO calls $12.50

      River: ($50.50) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $11, CO raises to $48.50, Hero folds

      Anon table.

      CO played 20/16 after 150 hands, no special reads, seemed like the average (rather weak-tight) TAG on the limit. AFq F-T-R 47-33-20. FoldtoCbet F-T-R 20(1/5)-0(0/1)-100(1/1).

      Plan was to bet/fold all 3 streets. River sizing maybe a bit small (~15$ would have been better), but he didnt seem to be the type of guy who will start a bluff 250bb deep on the river. River blockbet is against JJ-KK, and I dont think he will turn those into bluff. 22/66/77/88/99/TT beat me anyway, and these are all hands he could have, so I didnt think I should call this off, cause I "induced" him with my betsize...
      What do you think?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I would like you to bet larger on Flop and Turn, maybe 2/3-3/4 pot. On the river you are toasted by his range.

      If I were in his shoes, I would never call JJ here. I would either fold or turn it into a bluff. But that's not really the point. I think you are behind his River range so you don't even have a value bet.

      It is a check/fold.

      I was trying to be optimistic for you so I included every overpair inside his range.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 63.27% 63.27% 0.00% KK-66, T9s, 97s+, 87s, 76s
      MP3 36.73% 36.73% 0.00% AA

      You are behind so this is a clear c/f.

      If he half pots river, sure you could argue you have 25% pot odds and thus you can find a check/call. But I would assume that he checks back JJ-KK really often, thus you probably have less than 25%