[NL2-NL10] AK in the blinds.. cold 4bet or fold?

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $16.96 (169.6 bb)
      CO: $10 (100 bb)
      BTN: $11.07 (110.7 bb)
      Hero (SB): $11.82 (118.2 bb)
      BB: $10 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
      MP raises to $0.30, CO raises to $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, Hero raises to $3.30, 2 folds, CO raises to $10 and is all-in, BTN folds, Hero calls $6.70

      Flop: ($21.25) 3 J 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: ($21.25) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($21.25) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $21.25 pot ($1.41 rake)
      Final Board: 3 J 7 6 T
      CO showed A A and won $19.84 ($9.84 net)
      Hero showed A K and lost (-$10 net)

      villains are all unknown......

      i've been getting into this spot a couple times lately and i'm always under the impression that there is so much dead money in the pot i can 4bet/get it in profitably.. i can't 4bet/fold obviously, and isn't folding too weak here? really tough spot for me atm.. i prefer folding now.... what do you think?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      BTN: His range for cold calling 3bet looks a lot like JJ/QQ/TT/AQ, maybe AK. We look super strong shoving here and if we think he never cold calls the 3bet with AA/KK and would fold AK/QQ/JJ pretty frequently, then you have a shove here.

      CO: CO is my greater concern. How much is he 3betting these positions? If he 3bet bluffs enough % of the time, then he should be folding really often, cos he needs to be worried about BU waking up with a hand, and your cold 4bet squeeze looks insanely strong. I don't see you ever doing it with hands worse than AK and QQ.

      If you guess that BU is really tight and passive, you probably have a fold here. If you think there's at least 1 fish with a wide range, shoving becomes better here.

      You are unknown but you should have some other form of reads, like stack sizes, country reads, timing tells etc. It's really hard to say what the best play is here.
    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      hmm ok. i guess i've rarely if ever seen people slowplaying AA/KK so i doubt there is anyone getting tricky and planning to backraise. also it seems i just have absolutely no clue when it comes to timing tells and country reads. not sure i'm convinced country reads will be too reliable in the long run, but i guess there could be some very general and vague patterns to be seen. never looked into it :D

      what would your general thoughts be on timing tells? what would you interpret as a sign of strength for example? because it seems so dynamic... like a tank could be villain thinking "ok i have AA, but i want to make him think i'm actually thinking and not fistpumping", or it could be "damn i've got hands on 7 other tables wtf is going on! :f_ugly: ". seems there are way too many variables to account for...