[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH QJ fold 2 pair on river

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,070
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($36.51)
      BB ($20)
      UTG ($29.70)
      UTG+1 ($27.72)
      CO ($25.79)
      Hero ($20.94)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, fold, BB calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.90) 7:diamond: 4:heart: J:spade:

      BB checks, CO bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20, BB calls $1.20

      TURN ($5.50) 7:diamond: 4:heart: J:spade: 5:club:

      BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($5.50) 7:diamond: 4:heart: J:spade: 5:club: Q:spade:

      BB bets $4, CO folds, Hero folds

      BB wins $5.23

      CO:


      BB:




      On the turn I could get value from fish by betting, but BB might be slow playing better hand. Otherwise why for him to call the flop. He can have set. Hand like AJ he should squeeze, KJ not sure, but he is not loose preflop. So most likely sets so I dont bet.

      On the river it confirms that he has set, I doubt he is doing that with weaker hand than my in 3way pot especially.
  • 8 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      NOOOO

      There are some gutshots which missed like T9s T8s. Don't forget the 3way action on flop, giving him decent odds to call with those hands, especially if he has a backdoor flush draw.

      He may also valuebet AJ or KJ himself or maybe QJ for a chop.

      This is a really huge mistake. Calling is far superior to folding because you beat so many hands.
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      What do you think about betting turn IP, and checking behind river(ofc if we do not improve)? Or are we only getting called by smthing that is pot controling and beating us?
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Why not bet turn and river?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Gregor86
      What do you think about betting turn IP, and checking behind river(ofc if we do not improve)? Or are we only getting called by smthing that is pot controling and beating us?
      The 5 is a pure blank (only helps 68s) so once everyone checks we almost always have the best hand.

      It's true that BB can slow play a set still but we may know about that pretty fast (I can imagine him ck/raising some sets here to get more money in).

      So I would bet the turn and based on the river card check behind or bet for value. Of course on the Q we would bet for value again.
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      The BB gets a good price to get into the pot preflop with $1.50 already in the pot and $0.40 to call that gives him 3.7 to 1.

      He has a VPIP from the BB of 25% and Imo he could be calling with a prety wide range there.

      On the flop after your call there is $3.1 in the pot and he has to call 1,20. That is 2.5 to 1. A very good price for a straight draw against two opponents. He can also be calling with two overcards, an AJ, KJ,KQ,QJ,JT, or flatted preflop with a premium hand AA or KK.

      It goes check check check on the turn. I find it difficult to believe he wouldnt be trying to extract value there with a set. But he could be also checking with a draw. Everyone else is showing weakness though.

      If he has the set I think he would be going for a smaller raise around half the pot to extract value. I kind of feel this is a bet he could make on that spot to make superior hands fold.

      On the river I wouldnt ever fold there because there are a lot of hands you can get value from by calling. A set will beat you (obviously) but unless he holds that or 8,6 precisely there you can extract a lot of value from AA,KK,AJ,KQ,JT, missed draw.

      I cant see myself folding there.
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Originally posted by Gregor86
      What do you think about betting turn IP, and checking behind river(ofc if we do not improve)? Or are we only getting called by smthing that is pot controling and beating us?
      So I would bet the turn and based on the river card check behind or bet for value. Of course on the Q we would bet for value again.

      In the case we bet the turn and he donks the river, could we ever justify a raise there?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,070
      bad image hosting service - deleted so fast. So I post BB stats again using another service:

      BB:


      I want to ask - what range BB can have after he called the flop? 5 lets say is blank, it only completes 68. But I think TT is not calling here most likley I think, so worse hand which BB could call the flop is JT, or 68 which is now completed. So thats why I did not bet the turn, because I can valuetown myself to BB. JT he can fold on turn easily, beacuse its multiway and he should understand that my bet on turn would not be a bluff.

      BUt I don' think that BB is that loose that he would call with 68s OOP here.
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      The point is that it's very hard for him to have a set here, multiway and OOP he would probably raise them on the flop a clear majority of the time. He probably does not float 55 on this flop. If he can have 68s, he can also have lots of other suited connectors that are now 2pairs or will bluff. Therefore there is no way we can fold this river.