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[NL2-NL10] NL4 AJo BU cold call squeeze

    • tommygecko
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      iPoker - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: $5.20
      Hero (BTN): $5.10
      SB: $6.68
      BB: $5.00
      UTG: $5.89
      UTG+1: $2.44
      MP: $4.54
      MP+1: $0.92

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has J:diamond: A:spade:

      fold, fold, MP raises to $0.12, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.12, fold, BB raises to $0.48, fold, Hero calls $0.36

      Flop: ($1.10, 2 players) 3:heart: 7:spade: 2:heart:
      BB bets $0.82, Hero raises to $1.64, BB calls $0.82

      Turn: ($4.38, 2 players) A:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.98, BB calls $2.88

      River: ($10.14, 2 players) 2:club:

      Hero shows J:diamond: A:spade: (Two Pair, Aces and Twos) (Pre 29%, Flop 13%, Turn 95%)
      BB shows Q:heart: Q:spade: (Two Pair, Queens and Twos) (Pre 71%, Flop 87%, Turn 5%)
      Hero wins $9.47

      Villain is LAG, 21/21/22 over 28 hands. PF: I knew that he had many high pocket pairs in his range besides AJ+ or more unlikely, suited aces/broadways he could squeeze with so I felt it's fine to see a flop IP.
      F: I missed, villain cbets as per normal. My plan was to raise here to get rid of AQ+ hands and maybe some low pocket pairs which he might have played and missed a set. I didn't think he would call with Ax or nut FD. If he called or reraised I was obviously going to give up because he probably had a made hand.
      T: Ace hit, he checked. Think shoving was the only option here for me, if I checked he'd probably shove river too, and I would have to call.

      Is this a profitable play vs his range? The bluff raise costed almost half my stack. I would fold PF in most situations but he had a wide range and raised every hand from BB during that session.
  • 2 replies
    • faronel
      Joined: 13.07.2011 Posts: 1,186
      I see that you tag someone a LAG after 28 hands. The usual experience is that after 200 hands, his stats can become much lower. You can do this by looking at the player's stats right now and telling us if he or she is still at 21/21.

      I would say that folding pre-flop is the best option. I really do not see the point to call his "bluff".

      The flop. Ok, you are raising for bluff but what are you trying to represent here?
      - KK+? You would have 3bet it versus MP on pre-flop already.
      - a set? Calling with 22-33, 77 to set mine versus huge squeeze? That would be a fish play and villain would have the right to go broke on flop considering that play on pre-flop was bad.

      All in all, if I was BB, it would have been a happy-shove right here on flop after your minraise. You can't really rep KK+ nor 22-33,77. I would have expected seeing many worse hands like suited connectors on flush draw (best hand would be here 7 :heart: 8 :heart: then) or overplayed lower pockets (88-JJ).
      Imho, you just got lucky that villain went retard mode and called you flop and then calls your all-in on A high turn. :f_biggrin:
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      PF: Fold. What are you hoping for? For you to make a good call here you must expect him to have a ton of crap or worse JX and AX like AT A9 KJ QJ. You lack that information.

      With AJs maybe I might call but I'm probably folding it anyway. Your playability isn't that great. Do you have a rough idea on how to proceed postflop?

      How many streets do you call? Do you call down 3 streets, or call Flop fold Turn?

      If you cannot answer any of my questions above, then I think you should definitely fold. Anything else besides folding would be spew. I think you have a very weak understanding of your opponent's tendencies, based on only 28 hands. Thus it is way easier for you to make mistakes than for him to pay you off with a bad play.

      Thus this is a clear fold. If you were the opener and you suspect he's a LAG (but not entirely sure), the best option for you is to 4bet bluff.