[NL2-NL10] KK – Overpair vs. Turn Raise Shove with 3:1 Pot Odds

    • Raknyo
      Raknyo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 100 BB
      SB: 49 BB
      BB: 266.5 BB
      UTG: 100 BB
      MP: 67.5 BB
      Hero (CO): 108 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has K:heart: K:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, SB calls 3.5 BB, fold

      Flop: (9BB, 2 players) J:diamond: Q:spade: 4:diamond:
      SB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, SB calls 6 BB

      Turn: (21BB, 2 players) 8:heart:
      SB checks, Hero bets 14 BB, SB raises to 39 BB and is all-in, Hero?

      PF: Easy raise for value and to start building pot.

      F: Another bet for value, hoping to get value from weaker hands such as Qx and Jx or holdings. I am also protecting my hand against possible flush and straight draws.

      If I was faced with a raise here, I'd find a fold since opponent could easily have trips or two-pair or at worst he will have a draw with decent equity against me.

      T: I should be worried that some hands now have two-pair and T9 completed his straight. Again I bet for value, hoping to get value from weaker hands such as Qx and Jx or holdings. I am also protecting my hand against possible flush and now more straight draws.

      Really don't like it when I'm faced with this raise, SB could be doing this with better hands but I also guess he could be semi-bluffing with some type of draw (flush, pair + straight). I am also receiving odds of roughly 3:1 (74BB in pot : 25BB to call) which means I don't need to be good too often, just around 25% of the time to break even. I also assume that villain would have raised top pair, goodJdQ kicker or better on flop in order to protect his hand but don't rule them out completely.


      Board: J:diamond: Q:club: 4:diamond:  8:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    64.74%  64.74%   0.00% { KhKc }
      MP3    35.26%  35.26%   0.00% { 44, AJs-ATs, K9s+, QTs-Q8s, J8s+, T9s, AQo-ATo, K9o+, Q9o+, J8o+, T9o }


      I only have 65% equity here and I've been a bit optimistic giving SB so many draws so I will try again reducing the range to a more realistic estimate.


      Board: J:diamond: Q:club: 4:diamond:  8:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    46.45%  46.45%   0.00% { KhKc }
      MP3    53.55%  53.55%   0.00% { 44, KQs, KTs, QTs-Q8s, J8s, T9s, AQo, KQo, KTo, QJo, Q9o, J8o, T9o }


      Still, I'm looking good here a lot of the time so I think a call is definitely profitable.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      don't post your thoughts and equity calculations without posting the actual hand :D
    • Raknyo
      Raknyo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      It's 07:24am here in England, I'm allowed to make major mistakes this early ;-)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      If this is 100BB this is a snap fold.

      Given that he's 50BB, I do stack off here really often vs turn minraises. What I find is that

      1) Vs a min turn-raise, the opponent has the nuts 80%+ of the time
      2) Vs a turn jam, the opponent could have some top pairs in his range here. I expect KK to be good maybe 35-40% of the time.

      So if he had raised u to 28bb, I fold. If he shoved here like in this hand, I call.

      You are getting 25% pot odds on the River so you just need 25% equity on the Turn. I think you are certainly getting it.

      -------------

      Based on your assumptions you have to stack off. But I think your assumptions for his turn range are way off (you are overly optimistic). He never jams TX and JX and K9 like that IMO.

      I would think he has some combodraws, a few QX hands, and mostly 2pairs + sets.