[NL2-NL10] NL4 SH, TP/TK + FD vs X/R on turn

    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem
      PartyPoker
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($4.36) 109bb
      UTG+1 ($8.19) 205bb
      CO ($4.56) 114bb
      HERO (BTN) ($4.59) 115bb
      SB ($1.12) 28bb
      BB ($3.40) 85bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.06, 6 players) HERO is BTN K:spade: A:heart:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.08, HERO raises to $0.28, 2 folds, CO calls $0.20

      Flop: A:spade: 7:spade: 7:heart: ($0.62, 2 players)
      CO checks, HERO bets $0.44, CO calls $0.44

      Turn: 3:spade: ($1.50, 2 players)
      CO checks, HERO bets $0.84, CO raises to $1.68, HERO calls $0.84

      River: 10:heart: ($4.86, 2 players)
      CO bets $1.12, HERO?

      Villain is 45/30, AF: 4.0, 22h

      PRE
      Standard

      FLOP
      Standard, getting value from 88-JJ, Ax, FD`s.

      TURN
      Very much looks like villain did hit his flush, or is making a move with trips. I don`t think he`s ever min X/R-ing the turn with worse Ax. As I`m getting decent odds, I call.

      RIVER
      I just can`t see him playing Ax this way, so I think folding is the best option.
  • 2 replies
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Well maybe i would like to bet a bit more flop. On turn i think villain plays exactly like he hits his flush.

      I would check this turn because your hand can still improve on river and you can still then get some values from bluffs or worse Ax hands.

      As played also your river fold is very very weak. I think you have to make a plan here. Why call turn with a plan to fold river?

      Well if we take a look at equity you have to call 1.12 in order to win 5.98. So you need an equity of 19% to make this call profitable in long term.

      As played i think that river is a must call....but of course we can avoid this situation with line as i described.

      Well i am not the best player seen on those forums so lets wait for our wonderful judges:) )
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      If we only call the turn for the FD we get 17% pot odds and we have roughly 9 outs or 18%.

      So the call is marginal at best unless you think we have high implied odds.

      Checking back turn only makes sense if we can't expect to get value from Ax here. Considering that villain can still have AQ/AJ/AT maybe even other suited aces I would also double barrel.

      As soon as he raises, even as small as it is I don't think he is bluffing and since we could already be drawing dead (or we have less 2 outs) I can't see the call (just to fold river UI) be too profitable.