[NL20-NL50] Nl50sh TT

    • jachis
      jachis
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 745
      Villain is a reg 24/20, utg open 16%, fold to 3bet 50%, cbet flop 80%,fold cbet to raise 58%, cbet turn 60%, ch/r flop as pfr 30%,ch/r turn as pfr 24%, AFq 53/52/26

      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($66.89) 134bb
      CO ($73.65) 147bb
      hero (BTN) ($54.98) 110bb
      SB ($50.25) 101bb
      BB ($106) 212bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 5 players) hero is BTN 10:heart: 10:spade:
      UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, hero calls $2, 2 folds

      Flop: 9:heart: 2:heart: 7:diamond: ($4.75, 2 players)
      UTG bets $4, hero calls $4

      Turn: 3:heart: ($12.75, 2 players)
      UTG checks

      River: K:spade: ($12.75, 2 players)
      UTG bets $8, hero ???

      Whats the best way to play my hand against such an aggresive villain. Preflop I dont find any reason to 3bet agaisnt 16% range as I dont have any crazy dynamics with villain.

      On the flop I think maybe a raise might be good as villains range doesnt connect to well to this board and he does cbet to much for sure. But TT might be to good for that cause I would turn it into bluff.
      I decide to call cause he also barrels a lot on turn and he's barrel frequency on river is much lower so I expect him to bluff flop, turn, give up river a lot.

      Im not sure should I bet the turn when villain checks to me because of his 25% c/r as I dont want to get chekraised of the best hand.

      As played I guess I should fold the river as villains 16% range can have a bunch of Kx hands or even stronger hands that failed to ch/r turn and his AF is much lower on river.

      Also I guess I should do a little research on villain what hands he chekraises and what cbets, cause when his aggression is so high on both situations, he should have much weaker range on on side.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      River: You have a bluff catcher. You either call if he bluffs really often, or you fold. It's as simple as that.

      pot odds = 8/8+8+12.75 = 8/29 = 27.5%

      This is your equity vs a 16% opening range on the River

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 55.99% 55.69% 0.30% TT
      MP3 44.01% 43.71% 0.30% 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KQo

      Of course, we certainly need to discount his heart flushes and sets which are all probably going to be barreling the Turn. So our equity increases even further. I think he also bet hands with 1 big heart in them.

      In this calculation, I excluded QQ-AA and all sets.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 66.79% 66.43% 0.36% TT
      MP3 33.21% 32.86% 0.36% JJ-TT, 88, 66-44, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KQo

      You can see here that we have just way too much equity vs this guy. The disparity between our required pot odds of 27.5% and our actual equity if he bluffs here 100% of the time is so huge.

      Let's make more assumptions. I expect him to check down midpairs which will reduce our equity. I removed 88 and 66, while leaving 55/44 in as possible candidates to be turned into a bluff.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 63.67% 63.28% 0.39% TT
      MP3 36.33% 35.94% 0.39% JJ-TT, 55-44, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KQo

      I still think it's a really easy call. And this type of player is likely to bluff way too often on this river card, thinking it's a really scary card.

      If the River was an Ace, that would make it much tougher IMO. I think you have to fold on a Rivered Ace (his UTG range contains way more AX than KX)

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 39.74% 39.32% 0.43% TT
      MP3 60.26% 59.83% 0.43% JJ-TT, 55-44, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KQo