[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH - Royal Flush draw - go for it?

    • ILuvBeachVB
      ILuvBeachVB
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 358
      No Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10
      Full Tilt Poker
      6 players
      Formatted by pokercopilot.com - Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

      Stacks:
      UTG - UTG ($10.15)
      MP - MP ($10.15)
      CO - CO ($10.92)
      BTN - Hero ($10.00)
      SB - SB ($30.70)
      BB - BB ($11.27)

      Preflop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BTN with A:heart: J:heart:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

      Flop: Q:heart: T:heart: 5:diamond: ($0.75, 2 players)
      CO bets $0.49, Hero raises to $1.65, CO raises to $10.62 (all-in), Hero calls $8.05 (all-in), Uncalled bet of $0.92 returned to CO


      Do you go for it here?

      This was very early in session, so no villain reads
  • 5 replies
    • Optroot
      Optroot
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 250
      Nope, best case if villain does this with {QT,QQ,TT,55,KK+,AQ} and you only have only a small edge when calling. If he does it tighter than this your screwed. Generally going to see {QT,QQ,TT,55}, and you don't have the equity. Save yourself some variance by not taking spots with 2-5% edges at best, you stand to make at best $0.20-$0.50 here in the long run.

      Being the pusher with this type of hand is another story.

      EDIT: Numbers are even pre-rake, so it gets even worse for you, probably -EV.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      So with no info on villain what can we expect him to shove?

      Sets, overpairs, 2p, maybe AQ, and ocasionaly some worse draws.

      We need to call 8.05 to win about 20 so we need 40% equity.

      What do you think our equity is here?
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      .
    • ILuvBeachVB
      ILuvBeachVB
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 358
      vs this range we have 61%: KhTh,QQ,TT,AA,KK,KhTh,QQ,TT,AA,KK,55,KJ,J9,QT,55,KJ,J9

      vs this range we have 43%: QT,QQ,TT,55,KK+,AQ

      So this is a call, then?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by ILuvBeachVB
      vs this range we have 61%: KhTh,QQ,TT,AA,KK,KhTh,QQ,TT,AA,KK,55,KJ,J9,QT,55,KJ,J9

      vs this range we have 43%: QT,QQ,TT,55,KK+,AQ

      So this is a call, then?
      Since your worst case scenario gives you better equity than the odds then yes it's a call. Don't expect to be overly profitable in spots like this but I still feel in the long term you will show some profit.