[NL2-NL10] NL10 S - AKo

    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      iPoker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      MP: $17.56
      Hero (CO): $11.19
      BTN: $10.45
      SB: $5.70
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $12.15

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K:club: A:spade:

      UTG calls $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.30

      Flop: ($0.95, 2 players) 9:spade: 5:diamond: K:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

      Turn: ($2.15, 2 players) 8:spade:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.20, UTG raises to $3.10, Hero calls $1.90

      River: ($8.35, 2 players) Q:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      Hero shows K:club: A:spade: (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 62%, Flop 80%, Turn 80%)
      UTG shows 8:heart: 7:diamond: (One Pair, Eights) (Pre 38%, Flop 20%, Turn 20%)
      Hero wins $7.80


      Villain is a 37/14 over ~80 hands, and is a pretty bad player overall.

      On the turn, I think he can have many worse kings or draws here that could raise here for protection or as a semi bluff, so I decided to call. Is it ever reasonable to fold here?
  • 3 replies
    • gedwashere91
      gedwashere91
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.07.2009 Posts: 2,387
      Looks pretty good to me. Is shoving after his raise on the turn ever an option? There are a lot of combo draws and some worse Kx hands that could pay you off.
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Never even really occurred to me! :facepalm:

      Looks like that may be a pretty good option too, actually. Even if he doesn't stack off here with pair + gutshot type hands, even if he calls top pair or better, say something like this (assuming he would raise KK+ pre, so I discount those from his range):

      99,55,K9s+,76s,K9o+,76o

      we still have 43% equity if we get called. But we also get him to fold around 63% of the time. That would mean we would expect to make around

      .63 * $6.45 + .37 * (.43 * $22.53 - $9.59) = $4.10

      by shoving.

      Seems like a pretty good deal to me!

      And of course, if he calls much wider we'll have up to like 70% equity, so that would be an even better spot.

      So long story short... Shoving is best here?

      (If there's any error in my calculation above though, please tell me!)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Tino,

      Preflop: Looks good. If he never limp/folds we can consider isolating bigger.

      Flop: I like your bet and the size.

      Turn: Against a fishy player like him I wouldn't fold my TPTK here unless he is a super passive fish, in which case I would snap fold.

      As played, since we put him on many worse Kx and there are potential draws we can easily put him and go with the hand.

      As a side note I would also bet bigger by default unless we bet small to induce him.

      River: As played, why not bet this river once he checks? Sure QK and TJ got there but there are enough worse hands that can still call. We even bet small to induce.