how to deal with the downswing

    • renzs
      renzs
      Gold
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 50
      i'm currently suffering from a 200+ buy in below ev, i'm not on tilt emotionally, cause the type of this game naturally comes with a huge variance, i play hyper turbo sng at PS.

      technical wise, i'm currently considering move down stake level and increase the grinding hours thus the volume; but my friend told me i should instead stay on my current stake cause i'm still having a healthy ev, and instead of increasing volume, i should lower the number of tables i play and so that i can have more focus on each hand.

      i'm kinda confused about which way to go, pls pls, you guys, give me your advices, many thanks in advance
  • 19 replies
    • renzs
      renzs
      Gold
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 50
      one more thing to add, i'm currently having adequate bankroll, so bankroll management is not an issue
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well i really don't know what you want. If your EV keeps going up(meaning your playing well) and your not on tilt mentally then it seems that your dealing with your downswing just fine.
    • renzs
      renzs
      Gold
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 50
      currently i'm having a net loss even after rakeback, so although i'm dealing with the downswing seemingly well, but i need to turn this net loss into a profit, even it's a small sum of amount; i don't know which is the correct way to do it, staying on current stake with less vol, or moving down with a higher vol
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by renzs
      currently i'm having a net loss even after rakeback, so although i'm dealing with the downswing seemingly well, but i need to turn this net loss into a profit, even it's a small sum of amount; i don't know which is the correct way to do it, staying on current stake with less vol, or moving down with a higher vol
      Well putting in less volume definitely won't help you beat the variance. If you have BRM concerns then you should move down a limit, especially if you don't feel comfortable playing the current one if your getting on the low end of required roll. Personally i have no idea about hypers and BRM needed to play them comfortably, but generally speaking you have to put in a ton of volume playing such a high variance game for it to even out.

      Its impossible to always make a profit in those. You can move down and run even worse still making a net loss after RB. The only thing to do is to grind it trough.
    • pucilpet
      pucilpet
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2009 Posts: 694
      How many tables you are playing at the same time? I think it might be a good idea to decrease the number of tables for a while and increase steadily.
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by renzs
      i'm currently suffering from a 200+ buy in below ev
      I don't think any program out there calculates this anywhere near accurately enough for you to make monetary decisions based on it. Keep the EV graphs for the lolz.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      No reason to move down if you have adequate BRM and you are not tilting and your confidence is still high.

      The only advantage to moving down might be softer competition and easier to book a few wins. (But assuming you have a good mindset and confidence this would be completely irrelevant).

      Btw, I don't play SnGs so I've never understood why people play hyper-turbos when your edge is higher in standard SnGs for the same rake. (Lower variance too)
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      (mispost)
    • Mikus8
      Mikus8
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.10.2011 Posts: 240
      Take a break, do something you consider fun, buy something you want, get a haircut and then come back fresh
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      The mere fact you're asking the question indicates that you have some doubts.

      if your BR can handle the level you're at, why move down?
      However, for such a high-variance game, you need some overhead in your BR.
      If 100BI downswings are "normal" in your game, you need at LEAST double that so that you don't get pushed out of the comfort zone.

      If you're NOT comfortable -- at it appear that you aren't -- do what needs to be done to GET comfortable.

      Things like:
        Sleep
        Nutrition
        Breaks -- include fun activities.

      Take some time to document your assessment of your current mental state.
      Put down on paper your feelings as you play, and review at the end of the session.
      As you play talk to yourself about your attitudes. This makes you aware of them.

      Mind you, it makes your family think you've gone over the edge, but if it's +EV who cares?

      If you're playing too many tables to take such notes, play a couple of tables less

      I've moved this thread to "Learning to Win", since that board is designed for these sorts of discusssions.

      Good Luck!
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      No reason to move down if you have adequate BRM and you are not tilting and your confidence is still high.

      The only advantage to moving down might be softer competition and easier to book a few wins. (But assuming you have a good mindset and confidence this would be completely irrelevant).

      Btw, I don't play SnGs so I've never understood why people play hyper-turbos when your edge is higher in standard SnGs for the same rake. (Lower variance too)
      Faster games > Higher Volume > Higher Hourly :)
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by renzs
      currently i'm having a net loss even after rakeback, so although i'm dealing with the downswing seemingly well, but i need to turn this net loss into a profit, even it's a small sum of amount; i don't know which is the correct way to do it, staying on current stake with less vol, or moving down with a higher vol
      You don't really have a whole lot of an effect on whether that will happen or not ;) .

      The things that you do have an effect on would be:
      -constantly learning and improving your game -> higher winrate
      -playing fewer tables, not going on autopilot -> higher winrate

      Focus on how you play, not how much money you earn. The results will come.

      PS: going down the stakes doesn't make much sense IMO if you have the bankroll for current stakes. If you can beat the games, you will earn much more by playing current games in the long run than if you move down the limit.

      PPS: downswing is a thing of past, not the presence. So moving down the stakes won't really have much of an effect on that. If you move down the limits and increase the number of tables, your winrate will increase because of softer games, but it will decrease because you will increase the number of tables. The buy-in will however be lower, so you will be earning less money with approx. the same winrate in the long run.

      -SF
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Does being card dead/ running into coolers constantly count as a downswing too?
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by tommygecko
      Does being card dead/ running into coolers constantly count as a downswing too?
      Of course.
      Downswings last one or more hands.
      Even break-even "swings" suck.

      Think of how horrible poker would be to play if every win was immediately followed by a loss.

      Nobody would play for long.

      What keeps us all going is the hope (or expectation) that we will win.

      So any stretch of hands where we do not win adds to our disappointment.

      I even get tilted if my premium hands just pick up the blinds several times in succession.

      It is in our nature to get angry when our expectations are not met.
      Being in control of our reaction to disappointment is critical to poker players
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      So running above EV doesn't equate to not having a downswing right. Since coolers are not accounted for
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by Wriggers
      Faster games > Higher Volume > Higher Hourly :)
      Theoretically yeah. It's not necessarily true though imo. You can certainly make VPPs faster in turbos.

      Variance is a lot higher in turbos though, and depending on how much of a bigger edge you have in the standard games it might not affect your hourly rate too much. (You'd need big sample to tell ofc).

      Some players may even prefer taking small cut to their hourly to avoid huge swings also....saves getting stressed out, maybe you'd play better too.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      I'll use HU SnG as my example here since the ROIs I use are realistic.

      HU SnG Turbo you can play 8 games/hour 1 tabling and achieve 10% ROI
      HU SnG Hyper you can play 20 games/hour 1 tabling and achieve a 5% ROI

      So the hourly for hypers is higher, plus it's a lot easier to multitable hypers. If you can take the variance it's usually the more profitable way to go.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      You need to a huge sample to know your actual ROI - even more with hyper-turbos. More games than 95% of players think.

      I think certain players with excellent post-flop skills might be able to achieve higher hourly in non-turbo. It's also a reasonable business decision to accept a slightly lower hourly for a lower variance run. It decreases your chance of "blowing up" as the traders call it.

      Possibly this thread wouldn't even exist if OP played non-turbos.
    • OZSA
      OZSA
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2009 Posts: 804
      If you still play good and feel good mentally you should stay on the same limit and reduce the tables you play a little bit, there's nothing you can do to change variance itself, but most people (like me) tilt hard, get mad and lose even more or win less on an upswing. Best thing that removes tilt for me, to watch any kind of stupid funny stuff on youtube or wherever you find them, just laugh hard on something when you take a break, anything actually... for example this

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Km_lW-nXfX8

      there are alot of dimitri videos, all hilarious, the guy is a legend. whenever I see that stupid dance of his, I just forget about the bad beats or anything that tilts me..really there are alot of these things on utube, best things on earth to calm somebody down and to get back focus on the current hand, not thinking about what happend half hour ago in a suckout situation.