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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL16 - Puke & Herofold Set

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      CO = pretty unknown at the time (right now showing 18/10 over 84 hands)
      SB = weird regfish 25/15/10,5% sqz (402 hands)

      I would like to sqzshove vs SB here, but feels a bit dirty as CO should have a pretty easy call with JJ/AQ
      (sometimes he can have QQ/AK here as well if he's more passive and afraid of "so much action").

      So I would like to have JJ for shipping here vs somebody that I don't know much about (but isn't an obvious fish)
      to be clearly ahead vs CO's likely range.

      Now that I stove it, TT isn't that bad either given all the money in the middle already - close.

      Post - SB is very passive postflop with very low cbet and I wanted to create
      a tough spot for him if he does have something instead of shipping the flop
      and giving him an easy fold.

      Also I would be isoing myself to calls from JJ and AQ :diamond: from CO vs which I'm just crushed.
      (unless we add QQ/AK :diamond: to his range as well, but very unlikely without reads).

      Turn is just one of 2 worst cards as usual if he ever has AK/QQ in his range.
      If not, it's JJ/AQ :diamond: vs which I'm completely fucked anyways.

      I'm a station by default, but every part of my being puked and screamed herofold.

      "Standard" ?

      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      Hero (BTN): $19.71 (123.2 bb)
      SB: $19.42 (121.4 bb)
      BB: $16.73 (104.6 bb)
      UTG: $7.37 (46.1 bb)
      MP: $18.46 (115.4 bb)
      CO: $21.12 (132 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with T T
      UTG calls $0.16, MP folds, CO raises to $0.96, Hero calls $0.96, SB raises to $2.72, 2 folds, CO calls $1.76, Hero calls $1.76

      Flop: ($8.48) 5 J T (3 players)
      SB checks, CO bets $4.05, Hero calls $4.05, SB folds

      Turn: ($16.58) Q (2 players)
      CO bets $14.35, Hero folds

  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      PF: Backraise is definitely an option if he squeezes that much over a large sample. With TT, I believe you need him to have at least an 8% squeezing range.
      Sure, you are not ahead when you get called. But the main value of your backraise all-in is when all of them fold and you pick up 4.70 in the pot.

      But stacks are deeper at 120bb. so I think calling is the best play.

      Flop: I would raise here vs the SB if he cbets. Against CO, if he stabs a wide range I don't mind calling. If I think he is strong and hardly folds I prefer raising Flop with the 2nd nuts.

      Turn: I think he should be 4betting AK and QQ a good amount of the time. I'm not going to automatically assume he has a straight or stronger set, thus I'm never folding. You could be ahead of QJs (Sure he's nitty but you guys are deep and it's 3way).

      What makes you think he can never play KQ/AQ this way? Are you that sure?

      This is a snapcall, and it's not close at all.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 46.59% 46.59% 0.00% TdTc
      MP3 53.41% 53.41% 0.00% QQ-JJ, 55, AQs+, QTs+, JTs, 98s

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 45.32% 45.32% 0.00% TdTc
      MP3 54.68% 54.68% 0.00% QQ-JJ, 55, QTs+, JTs, 98s

      Worst Case Scenario

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 29.18% 29.18% 0.00% TdTc
      MP3 70.82% 70.82% 0.00% QQ-JJ, 55, AKs, 98s, AdQd, KdQd, AKo

      You are getting like 30-31% pot odds I think. I don't see how you can fold, when the worst case scenario isn't even that bad, and when I give my own estimates (only gave him KQs and AQs), you had almost 50% equity.
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Originally posted by mbml

      What makes you think he can never play KQ/AQ this way? Are you that sure?
      Nope, I am not sure at all, that's why I posted the hand ...
      Tough vs unknown, but as a default I would disgard KQ from his range.

      xx-JJ/AQ is the most common default range for CO to have in that spot imo, but yeah, I guess I started seeing monsters under the bed by thinking that he can sometimes have QQ/AK there as well and felt like I'm superfucked basically always.

      Prolly was influenced by NL10 zoom where everybody is supernitty overall.
      NL16 regular tabs are much softer/looser.

      True story tho, gay herofold, leveled myself.
      Thanks ;)